notes-failureModesOfRevolutions

Revolutions happen occasionally, and often lead to tragic ends when they succeed. I think it would be useful for people to create relatively concise essays which make note of what can go wrong. Here's mine. Hopefully, in this way, the lessons of history will not be forgotten.

This essay is not intended to persuade people to revolt or not to revolt; rather, it is addressed at people who have already decided to revolt. This essay is not concerned with the success or failure of a revolution, it is concerned with laying the foundations to ensure that what happens AFTER a successful revolution is good. If you disagree with me about what is "good", some entries on this list may have little use for you. Historical examples of the kind of outcomes I am trying to prevent are: the Terror after the French Revolution, the Stalinist purges, mass starvation after Mao's Great Leap Forward, North Korea circa 2008.

There are many things that have happened after revolutions that I personally think are terrible, but I am trying to focus on outcomes that I think even many of the original revolutionaries might have been dismayed at, had they been told ahead of time what was going to happen (of course, after they have done them, cognitive dissonance might cause them to say these things are not so bad).

Unfortunately, it seems to me that, although such things happen AFTER revolutions, you have to put in place measures to prevent them beforehand.

Disclaimer: My knowledge of history is only that of a hobbyist.


Circular flow of power

Leadership is de jure answerable to "the people" through various institutions. However, leadership has de facto power to "stack" those institutions with its own supporers.

Example: Stalin

The Politburo was elected by the Central Committee, which was elected by the party Congress, which was composed of delegates from regional party organizations. The selection of delegates at the regional level was controlled by local party secretaries, who were de facto appointed (formally "recommended") by the General Secretary.

Stalin was the General Secretary (who sat on the Politburo). Hence he was able appoint local party secretaries loyal to him, allowing him to stack the Congress with his supporters, thereby determining the composition of the Central Committee and the Politburo.

This allowed him to neutralize the various opposition factions, while retaining perceived legitimacy due to the perception that the Congress was a functioning representative body.

Steps to prevent

Examine the organizational structure of your revolutionary group. Locate all institutional mechanisms which is supposed to provide for the membership as a whole making or influencing a decision or leadership choice. For each such mechanism, take care to ensure that there isn't any way in which the leadership can influence the result.

"Temporary" measures

Because of the need for unity during or shortly after the revolution, "temporary" restrictions on rights are put in place. These temporary restrictions end up lasting longer than planned.

Example: Stalin

A "temporary" ban on intra-party factions was put in place at the 10th Party Congress in 1921. Party members engaged in organized dissent were expelled from the party. Eventually, Stalin expelled his main rivals.

Steps to prevent

Don't take "temporary" measures after the success of the revolution (and don't define "success" in such a way that it will take so long that "temporary" could mean a year or so). If you insist on taking temporary measures, put a time limit on them. The time limit must be short (i'd recommend 6 months) so that no person has time to solidify their hold on power in the interim. It should be made clear beforehand that the time limit cannot be extended during the time period itself, or immediately afterword, for obvious reasons.

Example: a zillion military coups

All of which promise a return to democracy really soon.

Power vacuum after death of original charismatic leaders

Steps to prevent

If YOU are the charismatic leader, realize that you will die sooner than you think, and make sure you retire significantly before that point. This will allow you time to assess your successors and act as a moderating force in case there are any unforseen "bugs" in the succession process. More importantly, it will force you to seriously design and implement a succession procedure in the first place.

Example: Oliver Cromwell

Removal of term limits

After the revolution, it is planned to have term limits for the highest officies. These plans are changed shortly before a dominant figure is due to retire (perhaps a constitution is amended).

Example: a zillion military coups

Steps to prevent

Make it impossible for amendments to term limits to affect anyone currently in power.

If YOU are the dominant figure, don't remove term limits.

Lack of civil liberties

Complacency about the possibility of a power struggle within the group

Example: Stalin

Apparently, early on few people thought of Stalin as a person with the capabilities to win control of the party. He was thought of todo

De facto lack of freedom of speech by group members

todo

Ends justify the means

Steps to prevent

This is a purely philosophical choice -- if you want to "prevent" yourself from believing this, you can, so I'll just try to persuade you that you should.

Many revolutionaries have committed atrocities in the belief that utopia could thereby be achieved. But most times, the utopia was never even achieved. Therefore, even if you believe that in theory "the ends justify the means", consider that if you utilize a bad means in pursuit a far-out good end, the bad thing will certainly occur, but the looked-for end in all likihood will not.

Concern with counterrevolutionaries

Steps to prevent

You may have reason to be concerned about counterrevolutionaries. Just realize that you need to be equally on your guard against the possibility of the revolution being compromised by the very steps taken to suppress counterrevolution.

Stoking hatred

Possible example

From http://wiki.stealthiswiki.org/wiki/Introduction

" .... AND WHY ARE YOU WRITING ABOUT HOW TO MAKE A BOMB?!?!?!

Because we need it. .... The rich are fewer and more removed from the rest of the real world than they’ve ever been. .... our government doesn't want many of us to live .... Its not us you have to worry about, its them.

If you're poor, you have to worry about them. If you're a minority, you have to worry about them. If you're.. .... "

Steps to prevent

Another philosophical choice, so again I'll just try to persuade.

I suppose your ideology may be such that you believe stoking hatred is permissible or even necessary. However, please consider the costs in terms of the ways in which this may shape the sort of society that appears after the revolution.

Lack of concern with procedure

todo

Execution of opposition within the group by vigilante mobs


Summary of steps to prevent (todo)

Pledge for would-be revolutionaries

After the revolution (the revolution is deemed over if the revolutionaries disband or obtain control of most of the government security forces for more than a month), assuming there is one, do u pledge to do all but two of: