notes on The Power of Intuition by Gary Klein

chapter 3: where do our hunches come from?

Recognition-primed decision (RPD) model (of intuitive decision-making)

The situation generates cues

You use cues to recognize patterns (which were learned by experience)

Patterns activate a list of action scripts (which were also learned by experience; when a totally novel situation is faced, you can imitate or you can use conscious analysis)

you mentally simulate what you think will happen if you follow the script, and assess the result. if you predict a problem, you try to repair the plan; then you repeat this step, mentally simulating the repaired plan. if you can't repair it, you discard this action script and move on to the next action script and repeat.

note: the distinguishing feature of this model is that at any one time there is only one action script being evaluated; you are never comparing plans.

barriers to intuitive decision-making

chapter 4: intuition skills learning: speeding up your learning curve

write down your guesses, then check the eventual results against them

form a bunch of teams, do thought exercises, then have teams explain to each other their solutions and why


risks: keep an inventory of risks

sources of uncertainty:

((i would add, unknown unknowns))