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Difference between revision 9 and current revision
No diff available.http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/marketCorrelation/SPY--SPDRs
http://seekingalpha.com/article/343931-5-etfs-to-consider-for-protection-against-inflation
http://seekingalpha.com/article/473601-adding-relative-strength-to-your-bond-etf-portfolio
correlations:
etfscreen.com/corrsym.php?s=SHM
etfdb.com/etfdb-category/inflation-protected-bonds/
http://seekingalpha.com/article/187568-duration-and-tips-the-looming-scandal
AGLS
todo: consider buying wdti and more commodities if the market rebounds
compare wdti to RYMFX after the commodities market gets better
gold seems to be tracking commodities down recently
a mistake of mine: to hold junk bonds when i thought the market would fall
a good analysis of the situation right now in the markets:
http://crackerjackfinance.com/2012/05/deja-deja-vu-%E2%80%93-a-third-summer-of-european-crisis/
basically my previous analysis, namely that U.S. stocks are too high relative to the sluggish growth in Europe, missed out on this important new risk factor -- namely, that Greece may exit the EU -- not that that would shake the markets IN ITSELF, but it would shake the markets because this means that questions would be raised about the rest of the EU, and in particular it might cause a run on the banks as people worry about the Euro losing value. In fact, the banks in Belgium, France, and Italy are having problems too. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-banks-deposits-idUSBRE84G0MG20120517
The EU has no lender of last resort so we have a problem.
My analysis, which seems to be identical to everyone else's is that the politicals leaders in the EU are by now familiar enough with the situation to take action, so most likely any crises will be contained. But there is substantial tail risk.
The Greek election is on June 17th. Expect volatility to rise until then.
I expect stocks to continue to fall, but i'm not very sure. maybe it's a good time to buy.
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2012/05/strong-move-to-new-high-in-vix.html
VQT
acwv http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=555214
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http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-is-never-going-to-default-2012-5
publically traded hedge funds:
The Man Group’s problems are a cautionary tale for others in the industry, and other hedge funds have also suffered after going public, including Och-Ziff Capital Management and the Fortress Investment Group. Och-Ziff is currently trading at less than a third of its initial public offering price. Fortress, which was trading in early 2007 at about $31 a share, closed Tuesday at $3.73.
By contrast, Winton Capital Management, another computer-driven trading shop, has flourished. Founded by one of the original scientists behind AHL, David Harding, Winton’s assets have swelled to nearly $30 billion. The firm charges management fees of 1 percent and performance fees of closer to 20 percent.
EMG.L Man Group Plc Unsp A (MNGPY.PK MNGPF.PK lon.emg
" With $59 billion of assets, Man Group is now facing the uncomfortable fact that it could be kicked out of the FTSE 100 index in June, which would lead index funds to dump the stock. The traders at AHL who pursue a managed futures strategy will have to turn performance around quick. They are already 14% below their high water mark. "
Oaktree Capital
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_fund#Listed_funds
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=EMG.L
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/04/19/uk-mangroup-hedgefund-idUKBRE83I14M20120419
knight capital kcg runs trading algorithms: http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/455711
scary picture: 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47515182
OECD growth should be 1.7% barring euro catastrophe
US growth 2.5% but i think this doesn't mean the stocks would want to grow that much, b/c the reason ppl like large cap US stocks is partially that they're international.
So let's say that US stocks "want to" grow 2% this year, plus a little more out of irrational exhuberance (let's say 2% exhuberance).
however this must be balanced against a potentially large decline if this event takes place: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=713737 . Currently intrade rates that at about 40%
so if X is the magnitude of the decline, the arithmatic expected value of US stock growth is 4% * .6 - X*.4
the breakeven point is then X = 6%. Which doesn't seem impossible if someone leaves the EU.
therefore, it's not unreasonable to bid U.S. stocks at 0% growth over this year, although most likely the EU will be fine and stocks will rise.
the markets recently:
Middle of 2010: Markets: Ok here we are recovering Central banks: here's some MONEY! Markets: yay!
Second half of 2011: US market: yay! US market to Europe: hey why u lagging? Italy: i still have some debts here y'know Markets: i'm scared! Central banks: O Rly? here's some more MONEY! Markets: yay!
beginning of 2012: US market: i'm bored AAPL: Hey guys! US market: Yay!
EU market: Guys? Where'd everybody go?
April 2012: US market: Wow companies make lots of $$$! Imagine how much they'll be making next year! Team America! Yeah! India: I'm tired Spain: I don't feel so great.
Beginning of May 2012: EU market: Guys? I'm getting scared US market: Letsee it's May what's on my calendar for may -- oh everyone sells in May (goes down a little) Alex Tsirpas: Hi guys! Markets: meh.
Spain: ouch. Some ppl: hey US market, why did you, like, go way up if you were scared of Europe? Nothing's changed since last year. Alex Tsirpas: Btw we're like, seriously, NOT leaving the Euro. Markets: (applying postmodern deconstruction; "Derive another reading of the text, one in which it is interpreted as referring to itself. In particular, find a way to read it as a statement which contradicts or undermines either the original reading or the ordering of the hierarchical opposition (which amounts to the same thing).") AAA!
May 21: G-8 meeting: message to world: "We definitely, certainly hope that everything works out ok" Traders, to US market: y'know, you can't just fall forever. US market: oh ok fine, i'll go up today
May 22: Asian market: oh the US went up, they must know something, because that's where all the money is, so i'll go up too EU market: oh the US market went up, they must know something, because that's where all the money is, so i'll go up too US market: oh the EU market went up, they must know something, because that's where the crisis is. i'll go up. Papademos: Hypothetically, if you thought about us leaving the Euro, you see that it would be a terrible idea and we shouldn't do it, and therefore we won't. US market: WHAT THEY THOUGHT THE FORBIDDEN THOUGHT that does it i'm not going up
May 23: Asian market: what, i heard someone in Greece talked about leaving the EU! (goes down) EU market: hot damn, we forgot to go down for the last few days! (goes down extra, making up for lost time) US market: oh no the EU market went down, they must know something, because that's where the crisis is! (goes down)
www.tradestreaming.com/2012/05/23/why-im-a-converted-believer-in-investing-in-p2p-loans/
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http://greenbackd.com/2012/05/23/dividend-yield-doesnt-work-what-does-three-key-conclusions/
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http://www.mebanefaber.com/2012/05/24/global-shiller-capes/
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"You scored 84.27 out of 100"
http://www.mebanefaber.com/2012/05/23/trading-system-backtesters-and-updates/
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/24/em-investing-check-out-the-grid/
Another superb ETP site, ETFreplay.com, recently launched a Volatility Target Backtest tool. What this tool is designed to do is to demonstrate what historical returns would have looked like if one had taken a high volatility ETP such as a leveraged ETP, a VIX-based ETP, etc. and combined with a dynamic cash allocation and historical volatility data to limit exposure to a target volatility ceiling.
An example may make this easier to visualize. Let’s assume that you are bullish on the Russell 2000 index of small capitalization stocks and want to get some long exposure to these stocks with the +2x leveraged ETP, ProShares?