notes-investing6

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rising interest rates

[1]

"Rising interest rates punish US power sector" https://www.ft.com/content/edd543d0-1772-11e8-9e9c-25c814761640

https://www.etftrends.com/2016/06/rising-interest-rates-a-review-of-domestic-vs-international-equity-performance/

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/prospects-for-ctas-in-a-rising-interest-rate-environment.pdf

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4101203-prepare-new-interest-rate-regime-focus-reliable-income?page=2

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/052814/these-sectors-benefit-rising-interest-rates.asp

https://www.barrons.com/articles/goldman-how-do-stocks-act-when-rates-rise-1438794968

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-02/rising-rates-sounding-alarm-bells-for-debt-laden-u-s-consumers

https://www.pimco.com/en-us/riseaboverates/rising-rates-dispelling-the-myth/

good read: https://www.schwab.com/active-trader/insights/content/6-strategies-dealing-rising-interest-rates

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http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-money/

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rent realestate book

https://twocents.lifehacker.com/passive-income-methods-that-aren-t-as-passive-as-you-1730927010#_ga=2.85850393.1692303425.1516314878-1651229265.1516314875

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https://www.pymnts.com/news/payments-innovation/2018/79-percent-of-millennials-gen-x-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-are-late-paying-bills-rising-consumer-debt

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cash

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17682252

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	Fidelity Introduces Zero Expense Ratio Index Funds (businesswire.com)
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17680040

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techcrunch.com/2018/09/12/spearhead-is-transforming-founders-into-angel-investors/

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www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/09/12/why-money-market-funds-wont-ever-be-the-same.html

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random misc interesting

www.wsj.com/amp/articles/secs-stock-trading-experiment-cost-investors-over-300-million-study-finds-1536206461

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matchagaucho 3 hours ago [-]

Classic long-tail pattern.

The growth of superstars makes me optimistic enough to look at ETF funds like GAMR. The industry overall seems undervalued.

http://www.longtail.com/about.html

reply

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https://twocents.lifehacker.com/how-to-get-the-first-fee-free-index-funds-1828052370

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https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/as-interest-rates-rise-its-time-to-switch-banks-to-make-more-money-from-your-savings-accounts/?amp_js_v=0.1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fnews%2Fas-interest-rates-rise-its-time-to-switch-banks-to-make-more-money-from-your-savings-accounts%2F

https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/10/11/the-best-returns-on-your-savings-can-be-found-at-online-banks.html?amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2018%2F10%2F11%2Fthe-best-returns-on-your-savings-can-be-found-at-online-banks.html

https://www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna919571?amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconsumer%2Fhow-score-top-rate-savings-account-n919571 ---

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/not-just-student-loans-millennials-also-load-up-on-this-kind-of-debt.html?recirc=taboolainternal

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4211702-dump-spy-buy-etf-instead

https://www.thebalance.com/boring-safe-savings-account-2388905

https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/goldman-sachs-sallie-savings-accounts-highest-interest-rate

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"Historically the 10-year Treasury tended to track nominal GDP just as the overnight fed funds rate tends to track real GDP." Jack Ablin

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ETFs are more tax-efficient than mutual funds because they do most of their trading by a method that doesn't realize capital gains:

"Index funds in general are more tax-efficient than actively managed funds, since they passively follow an index that changes, modestly, every year. Even so, index mutual funds often need to sell shares to meet redemptions if lots of investors are withdrawing their money, and they’re buying when they receive inflows. ETFs, however, don’t typically buy or sell their holdings—instead, they swap the underlying securities with large trading partners in what’s called an in-kind transaction, which does not incur capital gains and, therefore, shields investors from almost any tax hit.

That structure makes ETFs inherently tax-efficient from a capital-gains perspective (until individual investors sell the shares). And it’s a big advantage over open-end mutual funds.

That structure makes ETFs inherently tax-efficient from a capital-gains perspective (until individual investors sell the shares). And it’s a big advantage over open-end mutual funds.

Again, this is not just about active versus passive: Actively managed ETFs are far more tax-efficient than virtually identical mutual fund portfolios. Consider what transpired at Davis Selected Advisers, a firm that sells both actively managed mutual funds and active ETFs. Davis Select U.S. Equity ETF (ticker: DUSA) and Davis New York Venture fund (NYVTX) both try to beat the S&P 500 index by homing in on high-quality large-cap stocks. The portfolios aren’t identical; the ETF holds more financial and industrial stocks, but there’s plenty of overlap in companies such as Amazon.com (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Wells Fargo (WFC).

The ETF performed better in 2018, declining 11.6% versus 13% for the mutual fund, partly due to its slightly lower expense ratio. The bigger difference was in their capital-gain distributions. Venture fund shelled out a total of $5.73 per share in capital gains in June and December (almost all long-term), amounting to an average 20% of its late-December NAV. By contrast, the ETF only distributed 2% of its year-end NAV—largely shielding investors from any gains generated by internal trading. Davis declined several email and phone requests to comment.

" -- [2]

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" jackcosgrove 18 hours ago [-]

I have been an on again off again student of economics since college. The most important things to know, in my opinion, are:

1) The historical inflation rate is 2-3% per year in the US.

2) In most times and places in the US real estate appreciates slightly more than the rate of inflation at 3-4% nominally. So real estate grows much more slowly than most expect. A primary residence should be seen as the cost of shelter, not an investment, because...

3) US stocks have appreciated at an inflation-adjusted rate of 6-7% per year (8-10% nominal) even accounting for booms and busts. Speaking of...

4) No one can reliably predict the business cycle let alone individual stock performance absent inside information. Stock picking is a losing game.

5) The best way to invest in stocks for the vast majority of people is to buy the market in an index fund and minimize fees.

So to distill this down to three life lessons:

1) Don't plan on renting your whole life because inflation will catch up with you.

2) Buy the most inexpensive house you can tolerate.

3) Put everything else in index funds every paycheck, and only check your balance every now and then. Let time be on your side.

reply " [3]

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https://thepointsguy.com/news/faqs-chase-sapphire-banking/

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axos bank

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https://finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/3-ways-destroy-retirement-without-124700062.html?amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2F3-ways-destroy-retirement-without-124700062.html

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https://www-marketwatch-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/C7083A64-1E65-11E9-8254-8C3CA676B864?amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fhow-low-will-the-sp-500-go-buffett-and-shiller-know-2019-01-23

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https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-12-28/bond-with-world-s-highest-interest-rate-has-a-big-fan-in-pimco?amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2018-12-28%2Fbond-with-world-s-highest-interest-rate-has-a-big-fan-in-pimco

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https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/expense-ratios/ Don’t Obsess About Expense Ratios

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cash interest

https://www-doctorofcredit-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.doctorofcredit.com/whats-the-best-simple-high-interest-checking-account/amp/?amp_js_v=0.1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.doctorofcredit.com%2Fwhats-the-best-simple-high-interest-checking-account%2F

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cash

[4]

money market (can be FDIC-insured), CDs, savings, checking

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https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/07/13/in-etfs-the-bigger-the-stock-the-more-money-goes-into-it-and-that-co.html?amp_js_v=0.1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2018%2F07%2F13%2Fin-etfs-the-bigger-the-stock-the-more-money-goes-into-it-and-that-co.html

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https://www-wsj-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/as-interest-rates-rise-real-estate-stocks-lose-luster-1529323201?amp_js_v=0.1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fas-interest-rates-rise-real-estate-stocks-lose-luster-1529323201

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cash

https://amp-usatoday-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/663924002?amp_js_v=0.1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usatoday.com%2Fstory%2Fmoney%2F2018%2F06%2F05%2Fhow-find-best-rates-cds-cash%2F663924002%2F

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[5]

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[6]

"To make money shorting, look for an edge, be patient, and don't be deterred by long investors and management.

To avoid getting your face ripped off, avoid valuation shorts, accelerating growth, and companies with insanely loyal customers.

Also avoid stocks owned by irrational investors and/or in industries with big, dumb acquirers, and never use options. "

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[7]

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articles that just say the basics: index funds, 401k, rebalance, etc

https://twocents.lifehacker.com/the-valuable-money-advice-my-dad-gave-me-1821957050#ampshare=https://twocents.lifehacker.com/the-valuable-money-advice-my-dad-gave-me-1821957050 http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2014/11/04/why-i-put-my-last-100000-into-betterment/ https://twocents.lifehacker.com/use-the-ladder-method-to-make-investing-simpler-1625804066#_ga=1.71495894.435996537.1430322029 https://twocents.lifehacker.com/how-to-pick-investments-for-your-retirement-account-1607484143 https://twocents.lifehacker.com/avoid-these-simple-but-common-investing-mistakes-1684826589#_ga=1.38990694.435996537.1430322029 https://lifehacker.com/stick-to-a-lazy-low-risk-investing-strategy-to-avoid-l-1669221429 https://eyesonthedollar.com/lazy-investing-strategy/ https://lifehacker.com/the-first-number-you-should-look-for-when-choosing-a-mu-511049734 https://lifehacker.com/should-i-let-a-robo-advisor-manage-my-investments-or-do-1701366242

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-asked-4-robo-advisers-4-human-advisers-for-portfolios-for-the-same-investor-2015-04-21

https://twocents.lifehacker.com/how-to-build-an-easy-beginner-set-and-forget-investm-1686878594#_ga=1.91844442.1125888042.1416611403

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-26/bond-investors-next-big-trade-is-betting-on-u-s-homeowners

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savings account

https://www.marcus.com/us/en


https://www-marketwatch-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/FFCAE786-AEF5-11E9-985A-302AD497084C?amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fheres-what-happens-to-us-and-emerging-markets-stocks-and-the-dollar-if-the-fed-cuts-interest-rates-this-week-2019-07-28

 Opinion: Here’s what happens to U.S. and emerging-markets stocks, and the dollar if the Fed cuts interest rates this week

A Fed rate cut probably wouldn’t weaken the dollar because of massive quantitative easing all over the world

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https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html?amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2019%2F07%2F17%2Fforeign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

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https://www.quora.com/Why-do-quantitative-hedge-funds-seem-to-use-high-levels-of-leverage https://www.quora.com/How-much-leverage-does-a-typical-hedge-fund-use-and-how-does-it-vary-by-strategy https://www.quora.com/From-where-and-whom-do-hedge-funds-get-financial-leverage

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"Warren Buffet's Sharpe ratio is just a smidgen better than the S&P" but his CAPM alpha and information ratio are both very high:

https://web.archive.org/web/20151211094037/www.iinews.com/site/pdfs/JOI_The_Greatest_Return_Stories_WHReaves.pdf

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FRDM

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https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/08/06/stanford-analyzed-292-retirement-strategies-to-determine-the-best-one.html?amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2019%2F08%2F06%2Fstanford-analyzed-292-retirement-strategies-to-determine-the-best-one.html

summary: take money out of retirement account as slowly as possible

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https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-money-need-to-retire-early-at-35-2019-8

" To retire early at 35 and live on investment income of $100,000 a year, you need to have at least $5.22 million invested on the day you leave work.

 If you reduce your annual spending target to $65,000, you'll need a starting balance of about $3.25 million in a taxable investment account.
 To ensure the account's growth, Brian Fry, a certified financial planner at Safe Landing Financial, recommends an "aggressive" asset allocation of 80% stocks and 20% bonds.
 "

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https://www.businessinsider.com/high-yield-savings-accounts-live-up-to-hype-2019-8

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https://www.goodfinancialcents.com/how-rollover-403b-into-traditional-ira-tax-sheltered-annuity/

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https://www.goodfinancialcents.com/how-rollover-403b-into-traditional-ira-tax-sheltered-annuity/

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https://money.cnn.com/retirement/guide/401k_401kplans.moneymag/

--- cash interest

https://www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2019/09/30/bitcoin-giants-coinbase-circle-kraken-bittrex-grayscale-and-others-band-together-to-rate-tokens/amp/?usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fbillybambrough%2F2019%2F09%2F30%2Fbitcoin-giants-coinbase-circle-kraken-bittrex-grayscale-and-others-band-together-to-rate-tokens%2F

https://www-marketwatch-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/4F848CC8-E9DE-11E9-89A8-85FFFC5C0D88?usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Frobinhood-unveils-long-delayed-cash-management-accounts-this-time-with-insurance-2019-10-08

Robinhood is taking another stab at offering a banking product.

On Tuesday, the investment app announced a cash management feature for its brokerage accounts that will carry an annual percentage yield of 2.05%. The

https://www.businessinsider.com/why-open-high-yield-savings-account-now-interest-rates-down

https://amp-businessinsider-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.businessinsider.com/ive-earned-over-111-in-4-months-with-my-wealthfront-account?usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s

https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/11/01/where-to-get-the-best-returns-on-your-savings-as-the-fed-cuts-rates.html?usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2019%2F11%2F01%2Fwhere-to-get-the-best-returns-on-your-savings-as-the-fed-cuts-rates.html

https://www-marketwatch-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/4607A6EA-179B-11EA-B18B-04D23F2F0160?usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fim-56-and-unemployed-but-have-100000-to-live-off-until-i-find-a-job-where-should-i-put-this-money-2019-12-06

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https://www-marketwatch-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/75600A38-E085-11E9-A6AC-6F9674E9C36F?usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fthis-explosive-discovery-about-stock-and-bond-returns-will-shake-your-views-on-investing-2019-09-2

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https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/11/07/bond-yields-are-surging-and-the-scary-recession-warning-everyone-was-talking-about-has-gone-away.html?usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2019%2F11%2F07%2Fbond-yields-are-surging-and-the-scary-recession-warning-everyone-was-talking-about-has-gone-away.html

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https://contrarianoutlook.com/17-crash-proof-funds-yielding-8-1-with-upside/

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https://docsend.com/view/taygkbn https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/permanent-portfolio.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/permanent-portfolio.asp

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https://www.hussmanfunds.com/content/comment/

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Health insurance in retirement, a friend says it would be approx (but numbers will change over time): $3k Medicare plus $3k supplemental plus $3k drug deductible per year per person

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Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX)

Vanguard launched the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) in 1981. Total AUM as of January 2020 is $149.3 billion. This fund has the same investment aims of providing capital preservation and current income through investing in high-quality, short-term U.S. government securities. Vanguard bills this fund as one of the most conservative offerings in this category, making it an ideal choice for conservative seeking risk avoidance and capital preservation. As of September 30, 2018, the fund’s top allocation was to U.S. Government obligations at 45.95%. The average maturity of the portfolio holdings was 46 days. The expense ratio for the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund is 0.11%, the dividend yield is 1.55, and the one-year total return is 2.14%.

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-arent-bargains-yet-but-a-buying-opportunity-will-come-heres-how-youll-know-its-here-2020-03-16

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/globe-spanning-volatility-trade-is-hit-hard-by-market-slump-11584876909?tesla=y&mod=article_inline

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https://www.thestreet.com/opinion/when-the-bear-market-will-hit-bottom

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/historically-high-vix-means-stocks-103000895.html

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for currency exchange:

Youden 3 hours ago [-]

FWIW, where possible, I advise having both a TransferWise? account and a Revolut or Interactive Brokers account.

TransferWise? is fantastic for receiving money. They have local bank accounts in USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and PLN. However for sending money and converting money, their fees can really suck: for $10k USD -> EUR (EURUSD is one of the most liquid forex pairs), they charge 81 USD in fees, or %0.8. Even for local transfers (which should be free) they charge ~1 USD.

Revolut is kinda crap for receiving money (the only local accounts are EUR and GBP, the rest are GB IBANs) but sending and conversion are both free (conversion as long as the amount is <$6k/month). If you use it a lot, they have a ~$100/yr plan that gives you unlimited on both.

Interactive Brokers is literally useless for sending and receiving money (they only accept transactions to/from your own accounts) but they're fantastic for conversion. They process your orders directly against the forex market and charge ~1USD per trade for the kinds of trades we're talking about. The downside is that their minimum account balance is pretty high (~$6k IIRC) and they have a $10/month "inactivity" fee if your balance is below $100k and you generate <$10/month in commissions. That said, if you need a brokerage account anyway, their currency conversion is a great bonus.

And finally, Charles Schwab is great in the US. They charge minimal markup on deposits and withdrawals in foreign currencies (~0.5-1% depending on amount) and they have a debit visa card with no international transaction fees and Visa's exchange rate (~0.3% spread). They're not the best around but they're really great if you don't want to put your money in the hands of a less-regulated FinTech? company that has minimal deposit guarantees.

reply

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cash

"top yielding savings accounts out there like Marcus or Ally"

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https://www.cbsnews.com/media/how-to-hedge-against-inflation-hint-forget-gold/

answer: TIPS

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https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/the-fed-now-owns-nearly-one-third-of-all-us-mortgages https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24416807

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https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080813/how-profit-inflation.asp

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psyk

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https://twitter.com/burryarchive

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https://www.gurufocus.com/news/898903/big-mistakes-gerald-tsai

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https://enombic.com/ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26265872

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https://github.com/DidierRLopes/GamestonkTerminal https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26258773

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https://investinglessons.substack.com/p/are-you-trading-or-gambling

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https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/03/investing/buzz-etf-social-media/index.html

BUZZ social sentiment ETF

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https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/why-in-the-world-would-you-own-bonds-when

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https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/

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https://projectifi.io/

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https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/rising-inflation-what-it-means-tips-and-other-investments

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https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/

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https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2021/04/19/myth-busting-money-printing-must-create-inflation/

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/05/200-years-of-asset-class-returns/ http://www.epge.fr/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/The-age-of-disorder.pdf

--- real estate

https://fundrise.com/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-sell-a-house-these-days-the-buyer-might-be-a-pension-fund-11617544801

---

https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/select/where-to-put-your-money-during-inflation-surge/?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16247283579823&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2Fselect%2Fwhere-to-put-your-money-during-inflation-surge%2F

https://finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/real-estate-viable-alternative-bonds-190639527.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16246490275703&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Freal-estate-viable-alternative-bonds-190639527.html

https://www-marketwatch-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/dont-stop-investing-in-bonds-2021-03-04?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16246487951967&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fdont-stop-investing-in-bonds-2021-03-04

https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/06/25/reits-can-generate-income-and-inflation-protection-in-retirement.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16248083266952&csi=1&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2021%2F06%2F25%2Freits-can-generate-income-and-inflation-protection-in-retirement.html

---

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/

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options screener

https://freeoptionscreener.com/

---

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-is-flooding-into-short-term-markets-like-never-before-is-that-a-bad-sign-11628415002?mod=mhp

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www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/07/01/heres-a-guide-to-build-wealth-decade-by-decade.html

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https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28594201

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https://client.schwab.com/secure/cc/guidance/insights/content/what-about-cash

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https://www.avivainvestors.com/en-us/views/aiq-investment-thinking/2020/06/safe-havens-portfolio-construction/ ---

https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/asset-class-correlation-over-25-years/

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www.cnbc.com/amp/select/average-net-worth-by-age-35-to-44/

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"While I Bonds are attractive, when we have new money to invest I will continue to follow the order of operations I’ve written about in the past, prioritizing receiving the employer match on Kim’s 401(k), fully funding our HSA, and maxing out both Kim’s and my Roth IRA before investing in I Bonds." [8]

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https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/I_Bonds_vs_TIPS

---

" You can also purchase mutual funds that invest in TIPS, such as the TIP ETF (I prefer Schwab’s SCHP) or Vanguard’s short-term TIPS fund, VTIP. These funds are ideal for tax-deferred accounts, but investors need to know that the fund’s Net Asset Value will rise and fall with the value of the underlying TIPS.

My personal investing style is to buy TIPS at auction and then hold them to maturity, building out a ladder with TIPS maturing every year for 10+ years into the future. Ideally, this would be done in a tax-deferred account, making purchases through a brokerage. When a TIPS matures, I buy another one to fill a future ladder spot. I don’t follow the daily price fluctuations of the TIPS I own, because I have no intention of selling them before maturity.

In addition, I combine TIPS and I Bonds with other very safe nominal investments, such as bank CDs. In times of very low inflation or deflation, a bank CD may outperform an I Bond or TIPS. "

"Historically, TIPS pay a yield premium over I Bonds, which makes sense because I Bonds have a more flexible maturity, better deflation protection, and tax-deferred interest. But that’s not the case right now. An I Bond held for 5 years would have a real yield of 0.0%, a massive 170-basis-point advantage over a 5-year TIPS with a real yield of -1.70%.

I Bonds are clearly the better investment, over a TIPS, through every maturity level. A 30-year TIPS currently has a real yield of -0.28%. Investors interested in inflation protection should buy I Bonds first, up to the $10,000 per person per year limit. Then consider an investment in TIPS. "

 "I Bonds are very simple to track as an investment. I use TreasuryDirect’s Savings Bond Calculator, which can be clunky but does work. See this. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4179171-step-step-guide-to-using-treasurys-new-savings-bond-calculator This is another huge advantage over TIPS held at Treasury Direct, which is a do-it-yourself proposition, even for downloading yearly tax forms. Want to track current value of your TIPS? Open up Excel and get to work. Treasury Direct is not going to tell you, in any easy-to-find way.
 "

"Investing in TIPS is a bit of a hassle, mainly because TreasuryDirect? isn’t extremely user friendly. You have to download cryptic tax forms each year and fill out a 1099-OID tax form on the inflation adjustments. Tracking the current value of your TIPS requires downloading TIPS Inflation Index Ratios to determine the current inflation-adjusted balance. Good at Excel? It helps. "

https://tipswatch.com/2021/09/07/i-bonds-vs-tips-whats-the-best-bet-for-inflation-protection/

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https://mikeashton.wordpress.com/2021/09/02/are-home-prices-too-high/

---

https://www.businessinsider.com/savings-bond

---

"The Rule of 110 is a rule of thumb that can help direct how much of your retirement savings is allocated to equities versus bonds. Simply subtract your age from 110 to determine the percentage of your portfolio that should be allocated to equities, with the remaining portion invested in bonds. For instance, a 50-year-old following this rule would have a 60-40 split between stocks and bonds."

[9]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4312637-i-bonds-vs-tips-look-facts-choose-i-bonds

---

    Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (VTIP)
    iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)
    Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL)

https://tipswatch.com/2021/11/01/i-bonds-fixed-rate-holds-at-0-0-composite-rate-soars-to-7-12/

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https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ebonds/res_e_bonds_eecomparison.htm

---

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/

---

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gender-lens-funds-put-money-towards-women-leaders-11636056301?mod=hp_lista_pos2

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https://www.yieldstreet.com/offering/Sm8uJg/short-term-note-series-xx/

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicle-startup-rivian-goes-public-in-largest-u-s-ipo-since-2014-11636555266?mod=hp_lead_pos4

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https://client.schwab.com/secure/cc/guidance/insights/content/what-about-cash

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https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/why-think-many-people-better-off-renting-2021-11

---

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_systemically_important_banks#List_of_Global_Systemically_Important_Banks_(G-SIBs) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_systemically_important_banks#D-SIBs_in_the_US

---

finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/inflation-is-the-business-opportunity-of-a-lifetime-103827742.html

---

"Most of the return of the stock market over time comes from a few high-performing “superstocks.” More than 95% of all stocks, over their lifetime as public companies, collectively don’t even outperform cash, and more than half deliver negative returns, according to finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University." -- https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-work-for-a-company-should-you-own-it-too-11649429065?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos3

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https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/05/21/americans-now-have-an-average-of-9000-dollars-less-in-savings-than-in-2021.html

---

gives numbers for how much income various things tend to yield with a fixed amount of investment:

https://finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/much-interest-does-4-million-120000966.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16546126030062&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Fmuch-interest-does-4-million-120000966.html

---

https://www.marcus.com/us/en

---

https://finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/tide-changed-investing-veteran-says-132000124.html?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16548037997874&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Ftide-changed-investing-veteran-says-132000124.html

---

some investing principals:

---

article about lender AFRM. CEO Max Levchin thinks it has an extra good model and will survive a recession https://www.wsj.com/articles/affirm-ceo-says-next-recession-will-silence-fintech-lenders-doubters-11660365630?mod=hp_lead_pos4

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https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/08/11/millionaire-and-real-estate-expert-dont-buy-a-home-unless-you-can-afford-to-waste-money.html

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/08/18/early-retiree-shares-unpopular-money-opinions-that-made-him-a-millionaire-company-loyalty-will-make-you-poor.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-other-doomsday-scenario-looming-over-markets-11662212004?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos2 https://www.wsj.com/articles/junk-loan-defaults-worry-wall-street-investors-11662429632?mod=hp_lead_pos6

https://invest.blendid.com/?utm_source=DMRblendidlandingpage&utm_medium=discoveryprospecting&utm_campaign=147604594308&utm_content=611466787577&utm_term=m&tnames=discoveryprospecting{9061198}{15226553002}{147604594308}{m}{611466787577}&campaignid=15226553002&adgroupid=147604594308&keyword=&device=m&gclid=CjwKCAjwsMGYBhAEEiwAGUXJaVx?0zaV52wQo166BZlu59zS-G4LlCd?9uqWsBvYDpuITFwjI6SQlanRoCEQsQAvD?_BwE?

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/last-hurrah-michael-burry-says-120000886.html likes META, GOOG, BKNG, AAPL, WBD (July 31, 2022)

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http://fortune.com/2022/09/20/meet-college-dropout-invested-figma-thiel-fellows-adobe-success-investing-venture-capital-aron-solomon/ Joshua Browder https://www.browdercapital.com/ https://twitter.com/jbrowder1/ https://twitter.com/jbrowder1/status/1567735198350974976

---

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-trillion-burden-looms-world-012852392.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-are-my-inflation-protected-bonds-falling-when-inflation-is-so-high-11665180788

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/calculate-bond-yield-investing-11667581671?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1

" In Bond Investing, ‘Yield’ Can Be Calculated in Many Ways Investors might be unaware of the various approaches on measuring yield; each gives them one piece of the puzzle

...

Among the kinds of yield Mr. Shagawat cites: current yield, yield to maturity, yield to call, yield to worst, market-to-book yield and SEC yield

...

The classic measure—the one investors likely hear about most—is yield to maturity. That’s what is cited when pundits talk about the yield on the bellwether 10-year Treasury rising to new highs. ...

If you pull up an information page about a bond mutual fund on a site like Morningstar, you’ll most frequently find a reference to a trailing 12-month (or TTM) yield. As the moniker suggests, that calculation (also referred to as distribution yield) measures the fund’s distributions or payouts to investors over the previous 12 months, measured against the fund’s net asset value at the end of that period.

...

Another measure of yield found at Morningstar is the SEC yield... fund’s income over the past 30 days, divided by the highest share price for that fund on the 30th day. The number produced approximates what the annualized return of a particular bond fund might look like based on that 30-day performance. "

---

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-market-best-income-11667577473

PTTAX BIV FFRHX USFR SPSB

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https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/bond-market-bluff-fed-interest-rate-hikes-next-year-stocks-2022-12 Dec 16, 2022 "But the 2-year US Treasury yield has been on the decline since it peaked near 4.75% in early November, falling to about 4.25% today." "the 2-year US Treasury yield has a knack for sniffing out where the Fed Funds Rate will most likely land going forward"

---

MRDB

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https://themeasureofaplan.com/us-stock-market-returns-1870s-to-present/

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34276938

---

Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes. Sometimes No.

43 Pages Posted: 26 Mar 2021 Last revised: 5 Aug 2021 Edward F. McQuarrie?

Santa Clara University - Leavey School of Business https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3805927

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=352394

summary:

blog post: https://www.edwardfmcquarrie.com/?p=579 interview (mostly focusing on data collection methods): https://mebfaber.com/2021/06/28/e324-edward-mcquarrie/ discussion: https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/211

https://markets-businessinsider-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chatgpt-investing-advice-recession-bot-openai-portfolio-strategy-bonds-2023-1?amp=&amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16745376853903&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fmarkets.businessinsider.com%2Fnews%2Fstocks%2Fchatgpt-investing-advice-recession-bot-openai-portfolio-strategy-bonds-2023-1

https://www-coindesk-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2023/01/23/we-havent-seen-anything-yet-introducing-coindesks-policy-week/?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&outputType=amp&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16745352914139&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.coindesk.com%2Fconsensus-magazine%2F2023%2F01%2F23%2Fwe-havent-seen-anything-yet-introducing-coindesks-policy-week%2F

---

" And he explained to me how the world really worked in Manhattan. I said, “Why is there so much pressure? So much such an urge to recommend Roth conversions? It makes no sense to me. I can’t make the taxes pencil out.”

He said, “You don’t understand. The advisor is seeking to build a business. He finds a wealthy client, who is not in a Roth account. And he pitches a Roth conversion because tax-free forever. What’s not to like? And wins the account.” Because obviously, the existing advisor had been too stupid to recommend the Roth conversion.

So, that opened my eyes to games advisors play, which is that, “Hey, I got this hot new idea of converting to a Roth account, did your current advisor not tell you about this? Then you might want to kind of switch some of your assets over here, I’ll help you handle the conversion.” He actually starts setting up the spreadsheet. And conclusion of the current paper is Roth conversions almost always payout, as long as you live past 90 and never touch them. " -- https://mebfaber.com/2021/06/28/e324-edward-mcquarrie/

---

Edward: Hopefully, you’ll put it on the webpage, Meb. I would simply start with the “New Lessons from Market History.” That’s the wrap on the four years of effort into 200 years of financial market data. There’s a link to the blog post somewhere in that paper, if you will put a link up too. And then, the other thing is if you go on ssrn.com. So, it’s Social Science Research Network.com, you can search on author, last name. All the stuff I put up there is free to download, and I would welcome more readers. That’s all I’m going to say.

---

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/80percent-of-warren-buffetts-portfolio-is-invested-in-these-7-stocks/ar-AA16NLKf?li=BBnb7Kz

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"A real-estate investor who's acquired over 50 properties with the BRRRR method shares his best advice for using the strategy in today's market — especially as home prices fall and rents drop around the US" https://www.google.com/search?q=BRRRR+Strategy

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https://cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/cointelegraph.com/news/fiat-is-in-jeopardy-but-bitcoin-stablecoins-aren-t-the-answer-either-ray-dalio/amp?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16754063373232&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fcointelegraph.com%2Fnews%2Ffiat-is-in-jeopardy-but-bitcoin-stablecoins-aren-t-the-answer-either-ray-dalio

---

https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-friendly-ray-dalio-steps-back-from-bridgewater-s-150-million-fund

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/welcome-to-the-5-world-where-yield-chases-you-af3df384

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/valuation-based-portfolio-b6380c23?mod=hp_listb_pos3 Does a Valuation-Based Portfolio Beat a ‘Lazy’ One? A professor tests a strategy of shifting your holdings based on P/E levels By Derek Horstmeyer "Can investors use a market-valuation strategy to “time the market” and juice their portfolio’s returns over the long run?...The strategy we analyzed involves using the stock market’s aggregate price-to-earnings ratio to determine when to shift one’s portfolio away from stocks and toward bonds. The basic idea is that higher P/E ratios mean stocks are too expensive, due for a correction and hence the investor should move to fixed income or safer assets. We found that before the 1950s it might have paid off to adjust holdings away from stocks and toward bonds when equity valuations go up. Since then, however, such a strategy wouldn’t have panned out. In fact, since 2000, following a market-valuation strategy would have yielded almost 2 percentage points less a year in returns than a balanced portfolio of 50% stocks and 50% bonds. ... To conduct the test, my team pulled data for the past 100 years on U.S. stock returns (S&P 500) and bond returns (overall U.S. bond market). Next we formed a trading strategy that mimicked the idea that investors should shift to more debt if valuation ratios in the U.S. stock market tick up.

To do this we used a 20-12 trading rule to reflect the stock-market P/E ratios at which portfolio shifts should occur. Advanced by numerous professionals over the years who assert that markets can be timed, the rule is as follows: If the CAPE ratio—the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio made famous by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller—is below 12, then our portfolio will be 70% equity and 30% bonds. If the CAPE ratio is from 12 to 20, then our portfolio will be 50% equity and 50% bonds. Finally, if the CAPE ratio goes above 20, then our portfolio will be 30% equity and 70% bonds. ... Indeed, if investors had exited the equity market altogether when the P/E ratio was above 20, they would have been out of the market except for a brief period in 2008 to 2010—and therefore missed out on the massive rise in our markets over the past 13 years or so.

These findings give weight to those who believe markets are efficient and that investors cannot achieve excess risk-adjusted returns over the long run. "

https://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/move-over-chatgpt-ai-powered-etf-outperforms-year

https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/backdoor-roth-ira-tutorial/

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/sp500-we-asked-chatgpt-for-stock-picks-heres-what-it-said/ https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-u-s-banks-with-the-most-uninsured-deposits/ https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/largest-stock-brokerage-firms/ https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/accounts/fees/pricing-interest-rates.php

https://www.wsj.com/articles/naming-trustee-for-estate-what-to-ask-c040efd4

www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/06/09/recession-jpmorgan-bond-chief-bob-michele-sees-worrying-echoes-of-2008.html

/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/renting-better-buying-home-ramit-130019717.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/index-funds-investing-stock-market-couple-seven-figure-net-worth-2023-7 "He selected three specific index funds to invest in: the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund, and the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund. He said he liked the broad market indexes because they were inherently diverse. For example, VTSAX is built to give investors exposure to the entire US equity market."

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/06/27/45-year-old-self-made-millionaire-shares-money-cheat-codes-to-get-rich-off-real-estate.html

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https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/best-savings-accounts-01660323889?mod=article_inline

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/m-advisor-wealthy-families-7-203337535.html?guccounter=1

---

random big-picture personal finance stuff:

The following is all simple stuff that you've probably heard before but i think that where most people actually screw up with money is on the simple stuff, so i'm still going to say it. If you get all of this simple stuff right and you don't know the fancy stuff, you'll do a lot better than someone who gets the fancy stuff right but messes up this stuff.

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End of an Era: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns (2023)

"I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades account for the majority of the period's exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples"

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https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/municipal-bonds-tax-free-price-74d4bbcf?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1 "Municipal-bond investors are paying a greater premium than should be expected for the pleasure of not being taxed, a new study finds, often negating the bonds benefit."

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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/27/former-sp-ratings-chair-us-is-weaker-now-than-when-we-downgraded-in-2011.html

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https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/americas-debt-problem-is-too-big-for-the-bond-vigilantes-42f8167d?mod=hp_lead_pos3

m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/modi-is-deng-xiaoping-india-has-highest-growth-potential-among-top-nations-billionaire-ray-dalio-says

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work

https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/White-Papers/Market-Timing-Sin-a-Little.pdf

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/hurricanes-and-high-yields-come-together-on-wall-street-c7d1cff9?mod=mhp

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/investing-stocks-bonds-strategy-changing-91b7589d

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-its-so-hard-to-copy-charlie-mungers-secret-sauce-3f179eed?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos1