notes-investing2

specific investments

DISCLOSURE: THESE ARE MY PERSONAL NOTES! I MAY OR MAY NOT HOLD SOME OR ALL OF THESE INVESTMENTS. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. I AM NOT RECOMMENDING THESE AND MOST ARE LISTED FOR PERSONAL INTEREST NOT BECAUSE THEY ARE GOOD INVESTMENTS. SOMETIMES I COPY SOMETHING INTO THESE NOTES BECAUSE I THINK IS IT A POOR INVESTMENT BUT I WANT TO REMEMBER IT FOR SOME OTHER REASON.

---


reanalysis of:

" YTD Performance ETF Weighting Return SPY Market Cap 1.98% RWL Revenue 2.64% EPS Earnings 3.40% DLN Dividend 4.30% PRF RAFI 4.51% RSP Equal 5.24% EQL Equal Sector 2.03%

RWL still above SPY but it goes deeper when SPY has a major dip RSP went way above but is now slightly below RSP superior to PRF EQL still slightly above but tracks fairly close DLN does worse

out of these, RSP looks best (is it just a higher beta?) -- but: its beta is 1.17-1.18 on both 3 and 5 yr timescales its Sharpe ratio is .96 on 3 yr timescale and .1 on 5 yr(!) according to Yahoo finance but Sortino is over 1

Sortino ratio is like Sharpe but over 1 choice: RSP

"

in Yahoo finance.

RWL: no, just a little better than SPY

PRF: did worse than RSP overall, better in initial upturn, but worse later on -- and the same in a downturn.

both RSP and PRF fell lower than SPY in downturn

RSP did better than SPY in initial upturn but for the past year it's done worse

over past 2 years it's about the same as SPY

when it did better was really just in between october and july 2010

EPS, otoh, does slightly better than SPY the whole time

DLN does worse (but are we accounting for the dividends here?!?)

http://biz.yahoo.com/charts/guide7.html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/194351-technical-analysis-fatal-flaw-all-charts-lie

including dividends is called "total return" and here's some sites that do charts with it:

http://www.etfreplay.com/charts.aspxhttp://www.etfreplay.com/charts.aspx

http://www.etfreplay.com/combine.aspx

http://www.etfreplay.com/screener.aspx

http://www.etfreplay.com/etfimages/jnk.png

http://www.buyupside.com/buildportfolioanystock/inputsymbols.php

wow etfreplay looks awesome

SPY/RSP: RSP better; same as before tho, SPY has been better since about 2010, but RSP was much better deriving from the second half of 2009

PCEF vs SPY: PCEF has less return, less volatily, highly correlated, but return/vol ratio is lower

morningstar reports total returns on the "performance" tab but not sure if the "chart" tab has it

" It's when you use charts to gauge long-term performance that you might run into trouble. Yahoo! Finance and Google Finance have price charts for funds and ETFs; to get a little more information, you can opt to have flags showing when dividends were paid. "

" For a better idea of total return, Morningstar.com charts the changing value of an initial $10,000 investment, including distributions, for funds and ETFs. WSJ.com has price charts for ETFs but growth-of-$10,000 charts for funds." -- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204443404577054332688164006.html

but actually when you compare, only the base security is total return, the others are just price! arg!

http://ycharts.com/companies/MORN

gives some charts too

ok this guy will do it:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?PCEF http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PCEF+Interactive#symbol=pcef;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

PCEF is a good example because it's price is slightly lower than flat but it pays out dividends

another example is EVT:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?EVT

https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:EVT

note that etfreplay is better when it covers something

note that with perfchart (stockcharts.com), you have to be real careful not to look at a time horizon before the beginning of any of the securities, or the results will be crazy (in favor of that security?)

ok sooo.. RSP is better than SPY in general, although SPY has been better since the crash

DLN does worse -- it did better most of the time after the crash until the last year or so, but it crashed harder, which makes up for it

RWL does a little better but its tough to say, i wouldn't switch to it

EPS is indistinguishable from SPY, mb a tiny bit better

PRF is indistinguishable from SPY, mb a tiny bit better in the initial bounce after the crash, and worse recently

EQL is worse than SPY

morningstar says RSP has slightly higher stddev, and slightly higher Sharpe and Sortino Ratios

decision: RSP over SPY

---

HYG is significantly better than RSP with any start date before the crash (but RSP is better after the crash) -- but possibly this is b/c HYG doesnt go back far enough -- HYG is 30% since its inception in early 2007, and RSP is 10%, but if you go back to 2004, RSP is 85%


good discussion of the flaws of complex methods of portfolio optimization --- namely, the sensitivity to parameters (we're dealing with exponential growth here so a small error in the input rate of growth could lead to a large error in the results), the mean-reverting nature of real data (so the inputs you give it will be SYSTEMICALLY biased compared to the future, in exactly the wrong direction (what was good in the past will be a little worse in the future and vice versa), and the large number of parameters.

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/497/mvo.htm

this is interesting too: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm

it talks about a portfolio which is 25% stock, 25% long duration bonds, 25% short duration T-bills, 25% gold

also notes that "This is not that far off from the asset allocation recommended by the Talmud: one-third each in land, business interests, and "reserves," the latter of which, in those days, meant silver."


http://www.amazon.com/The-Intelligent-Asset-Allocator-Portfolio/dp/0071362363/ref=pd_sim_b_1


i wonder if one can buy bonds from the German and Japanese governments?

looks like Japan ain't paying much: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/japan/

germany neither: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/germany/

and there's inflation: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/inflation-cpi

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/


maybe it's time to buy some TIPS?

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield

woah it's negative real yield!

didn't realize how much our economy is still on life support, i guess

what's AGG's yield? seems to be 1.97%. Inflation is 2.5-2.7%. So AGG is ~-.5% real yield, with avg effective duration 4.36 years.

Guess it's time to buy more BSJD...

consider IBKR :)


" The new ETF, Yorkville High Income ETF (YMLP), is a passively managed fund that is the latest entry in the crowded MLP space, which has attracted investor interest because MLPs generate steady dividends and are not meaningfully affected by volatility in energy prices. The fund, whose 0.82% expense ratio is in line with the fees charged by other MLP ETFs and exchange-traded notes, tracks a Solactive index that selects MLPs based on current yield, coverage ratio, and distribution growth criteria.

YMLP holds 25 MLPs and has a distribution rate of about 8.75%. "

SJNK has 7% yield with a 3-year effective duration. yay :)

http://etfdb.com/2012/ishares-rolls-out-ex-u-s-junk-bond-etfs-emhy-hyxu/

EMHY emerging markets high yield bonds

From a country perspective, the breakdown of EMHY may be a bit surprising. Venezuela is the largest individual component at about 19%, followed by Turkey (15%), the Philippines (12%), and Russia (7%). Other countries represented in EMHY include Lebanon, Ukraine, the UAE, Brazil, Hungary, and Mexico. The BRIC bloc of emerging markets accounts for about 15% of the entire portfolio, and there are more than two dozen different market represented in total [see EMHY fact sheet].

HYXU developed ex-us high yield bonds. "The index underlying HYXU has a yield to maturity of about 8.1% and an effective duration of just under four years. So despite a lower duration, Europe-focused HYXU actually has a higher yield than EMHY. "

Luxembourg takes the top spot at about 16%, followed by the Netherlands (15%), France (15%), and Germany (11%).

ANGL http://etfdb.com/2012/van-eck-debuts-fallen-angel-junk-bond-etf-angl/

IHY international high yield

Under The Hood

The related BofA? Merrill Lynch Global ex-U.S. Issuers High Yield Constrained Index has an average yield to worst of about 8.3% with an average modified duration of about four years. About 1,000 individual securities make up the index, spread across a number of different industries and countries. Industrials bonds make up close to 75% of the underlying index, though that total includes companies engaged in a number of different industries such as automotive, energy, media, health care, and real estate. Financial issuers make up about 20% of the underlying portfolio.

The PowerShares? International Corporate Bond Portfolio (PICB) and SPDR Barclays Capital International Corporate Bond ETF (IBND) offer access to international corporate bonds, but both focus primarily on higher quality corporate debt in developed markets.

HYLD actively managed high yield

WisdomTree? Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund (CEW): $344 million

This active currency fund maintains a structure very similar to CEW, and a slightly broader focus. In addition to the Chinese yuan, CEW includes the Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, Chilean Peso, South African Rand, Polish Zloty, Russian Ruble, Turkish New Lira, South Korean Won, Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee, and Malaysian Ringgit.

Guggenheim Enhanced Short Duration Bond ETF (GSY): $150 million

This ETF, from Guggenheim, can also be thought of as a safe haven ETF; GSY focuses on high quality fixed income securities that are approaching maturity. With an average duration of only a few months, GSY features considerably less interest rate risk than the aforementioned MINT. GSY is also one of the cheapest active ETFs on the market, with expenses capped at just 0.27%.

AdvisorShares? Cambria Global Tactical ETF (GTAA): $112 million

This ETF offers access to a broad portfolio that includes multiple asset classes in a single ticker. Utilizing quantitative methodologies, GTAA seeks to achieve absolute returns with reduced volatility and downside risk relative to more traditional investing techniques.

Active Bear ETF (HDGE): $142 million

This active ETF is yet another unique product; HDGE features a portfolio comprised entirely of short positions in stocks expected to underperform. Based on forensic accounting methodologies, HDGE aims to short stocks that are using aggressive accounting principles to hide the deterioration of their business and cash flows.


my "three factor" model of financial assets:

e.g. stocks go up when business is expected to do well; or when the interest rate falls (because a major competing investment, bonds, is now less attractive); or when people have a lot of money to spend in the stock market

this is still just basic supply and demand, but rephrased in a way i find useful.


todo write up why i'm doing what i'm doing now


todo write up my four factor model of when the efficient market hypothesis fails


Q: Can you time the market?

A: Sure you can. But don't bet very much on it.

In other words, go ahead and try to time the market, but set things up in such a way that if you are right, you make a little more than you would have, but if you are dead wrong, you only lose a little more.


Q: What order type to use?

I'm not quite sure how one should use order types in what is, for me, the most common situation: You are rebalancing your portfolio. You don't have a strong view on what price asset X should be at today, you aren't trying to execute either a contrarian or momentum strategy on the time scale of days or less, and you aren't in a rush so you'd prefer a good price to a fast execution.

Now, if you had a view on exactly how much asset X is worth, you would set a limit. If you were trading on news on a timescale of seconds or minutes, you would put in a market order. If you were contrarian day-trading, you'd set a limit. If you were momentum day-trading, you'd set a stop limit.

But when you are just rebalancing your portfolio, what do you us?

I'm going to try using IB's REL order. This order type acts like a limit order where the limit is adjusted to match the bid price of the asset when you buy (and to match the ask when you sell). This means that you'll capture the spread; but this will be more than compensated by adverse selection, namely,


todo: consider WDTI, IAU

CEF and PHYS look good if they ever trade at a premium again..

ETB looks ok, 11% discount, 4% Apple tho, forgot to check the expense fee tho todo: look thru http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buy-write, find other examples ETV: nasdaq PBP: no discount

QAI universe: http://www.indexiq.com/docs/iqhgalph/iqhgalphapril.csv

RWR,SPDR DJ Wilshire REIT ETF

VEA,Vanguard MSCI EAFE ETF

VNQ,Vanguard ETF REIT

CWB,SPDR Barclays Capital Convertible Securities

RWX,SPDR DJ International Real Estate ETF

PCY,PowerShares? Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio

EMB,iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond Fund

EFA,iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund

BWX,SPDR Barclays Capital International Treasury Bond ETF

todo:

consider http://beta.fool.com/bhessel/2012/04/20/hedge-fund-strategy-etfs-reconsidered/3791/?ticker=CPI&source=eogyholnk0000001

todo: consider http://etfdb.com/2012/the-five-highest-yielding-etfs/

todo: consider http://etfdb.com/2011/active-etfs-in-times-of-crisis-how-do-they-hold-up/

debts in emerging currencies: EMLC, ELD? ALD? EMLC: 5.25% yield, 3.7yr duration, .5% expense,

"dim sum bonds"

http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/high-yield-bonds/ see also high yield short duration, high yield emerging

WisdomTree? Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund (EMCB)

PIMCO Total Return ETF (BOND)

AdvisorShares? Accuvest Global Opportunities ETF (ACCU) active, 1.25% expense fee

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=436634

Yield to Maturity % One-Yr Standard Deviation % Average Years to Maturity Expense Ratio % Currency Exposure (U.S. Dollar/ Non-USD) PowerShares? EM Sov Debt (PCY) 5.79 8.89 14.7 0.50 U.S. Dollar iShares JPMorgan USD EM Bnd (EMB) 5.31 8.05 11.7 0.60 U.S. Dollar WisdomTree? EM Local Debt (ELD) 5.40 13.27 5.1 0.55 Non-USD Market Vectors EM LocCurrBd? (EMLC) 6.35 13.99 6.8 0.49 Non-USD iShares EM LocCurrBd? (LEMB) 6.04 N/A 5.8 0.60 Non-USD

i like eld; lowest duration, non-USD denominated

todo:

https://www.google.com/search?q=mark+write+fund&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=ubuntu&channel=fs#hl=en&client=ubuntu&hs=7mZ&channel=fs&sclient=psy-ab&q=covered+call+closed+end+fund&oq=covered+call+closed+end+fund&aq=f&aqi=g1g-b1&aql=&gs_nf=1&gs_l=serp.3..0j0i8.10897.14289.2.14501.28.22.0.0.0.2.758.7067.0j5j9j3j3j0j2.22.0.8YceJTeCBcY&psj=1&fp=1&biw=1100&bih=1599&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.r_qf.,cf.osb&cad=b

todo:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/317108-6-covered-call-closed-end-funds-with-highest-dividend-yield-enhancement beta.fool.com/bhessel/2012/04/20/hedge-fund-strategy-etfs-reconsidered/3791/?ticker=CPI&source=eogyholnk0000001


dbv seems to be generally superior to ICI in past performance


" It will be no surprise if, thanks to the catalytic power of the bubble and market meltdown, the distinctions between the two camps disappear and a new paradigm emerges.

One economist leading the effort to define that new paradigm is Andrew Lo, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who sees merit in both the rational and behavioural views. He has tried to reconcile them in the “adaptive markets hypothesis”, which supposes that humans are neither fully rational nor psychologically unhinged. Instead, they work by making best guesses and by trial and error. If one investment strategy fails, they try another. If it works, they stick with it. Mr Lo borrows heavily from evolutionary science. He does not see markets as efficient in Mr Fama’s sense, but thinks they are fiercely competitive. Because the “ecology” changes over time, people make mistakes when adapting. Old strategies become obsolete and new ones are called for. "


beware products with fat spreads

you cannot completely negate spreads with limit orders b/c adverse selection will take the place of margins

always use limit orders with ETFs. always check indicitive value with ETFs.

"leave something for the other guy" -- realize that you need to pay a spread

on IB, i like to use REL orders with 0.01 offset, and a limit of the last price (or indicitive value) plus .01 (.01 in the unfavorable direction). remember to check "seek price improvement"


Q2 2012 U.S. equities outlook: It's a trap! (maybe)

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?$SPX,AFK,EFA,FXI,EEM,EMU,EWJ,VGK

(note: this is a chart of "total return", meaning including dividends, rather than just stock prices; apparently Yahoo finance just shows the stock price without adding in dividends, which can be highly misleading if some of the securities you are comparing have a high yield).

This sort of analysis is highly dubious, however. As you can see, the which line looks unreasonably high depends entirely upon which time you start from. To get a feel for this, I recommend going to http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?$SPX,EFA,FXI,EEM,EMU,EWJ yourself and dragging on the left edge of the slider bar at the bottom, which changes the start time and redraws the chart dynamically.

So, on some timescales the S&P 500 appears to grow faster than developing countries, on others the developing countries appear to grow faster. However, in the long term, we know that mature economies cannot grow as fast as developing ones:

(figure 4 from http://faculty.insead.edu/fatas/wall/wall.pdf )

Note that the blob in the lower left of the above scatterplot shows that lack of maturity is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for the highest growth potential. Consistent with this, the blue line at the bottom of this figure represent the AFK Market Vectors Africa ETF:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?$SPX,AFK,EFA,FXI,EEM,EMU,EWJ

My view on the U.S. economy is that, over the timescale of a few years, the U.S. economy (and the S&P 500) will continue to grow (but not as quickly as emerging economies). The question is whether or not the S&P 500 has recently gone up "too quickly", leading to a market correction, or whether it will continue to climb. I think neither outcome is unlikely.

The case for continued growth is simple: the U.S. economy is growing, so why shouldn't the stock market? The recent rise could just be the market climbing out of the last of the hole from the crash in 2008.

The case for a correction has two arguments:

1) In the 2011 index fund charts above, you can see that SPX appears to begin an anomalous ascent starting around September 2011. To me, it is scary to be in a market right after it has risen an unusual amount, because a rising market will tend to draw in more people, causing a self-reinforcing but ultimately unsustainable positive feedback loop on prices (a bubble).

When you see a fast ascent, you have to worry: how much of this ascent due to the same individuals upwardly revising their expectation of the value of stocks due to economic forecasts, and how much of it is just the result of a positive feedback process in which the rise in the market itself is the main cause of raised expectations?

2) The Fed has been intervening to push down interest rates and U.S. bond yields. This intervention is probably having the effect of causing investors to invest less in bonds than they otherwise would have, and to put more of their money into equities instead. I experienced this myself; a few months ago I was thinking of buying one or more government bonds, but when I saw that they are paying negative real interest, I balked.

The Fed will not keep doing this forever. At some point, bond yields will rise to their "natural" level, and then investors may take some of their money out of the stock market and put more of it into bonds, and at some point prior to that, there will be pressure on the stock market to fall in anticipation of that. I can't say if this pressure is a big deal, if will be enough to make the market go down; perhaps it will just cause it to rise imperceptibly less rapidly.

I would expect that this effect is buoying all equities around the world, and I don't know how much it would target U.S. equities. However, the fact that Operation Twist was announced in September 2011, the same time as the beginning of the anomalous rise in SPX in the above charts, worries me.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/001/384/Atrapitis.gif

What to do?

Of course, even if there is going to be a bubble, the best thing would be to stay in it until shortly before it pops (the "bigger fool" strategy), but I don't have much confidence in my ability to know when that will be. This suggests that the "safe thing" to do is to get out.

On the other hand, there is no reason for me to believe that I can "time the market". Nothing I'm saying here would be a surprise to many investors, so there fears are probably already incorporated into prices. This suggests that I should ignore my paranoia about the market being overbought and simply leave most of my long-term savings in stocks, because the average rate of growth of stocks is faster than other things.

When in doubt, interpolate, so I'm planning to invest in a mix of equity and other investment alternatives. While it may not be a bad idea to try to time the market, I think it is definitely a bad idea to bet too much on one's ability to due so (at least, unless you have evidence more rigorous than what I've presented). Similarly, because I don't want to bet too much money on my or anyone else's ability to beat the market, I like to simply "buy (a representative sample of) the market", which means mostly index funds.

But this doesn't mean that I'm buying the S&P 500. As you can see in the chart at the beginning of this article, I don't think that is really a representative sample of "the market". In upcoming columns I will go into detail about which equities, and which alternatives, I'm investing in.

Disclaimer: Please note that I am a cognitive studies student, not a successful investor, and I don't know what I'm talking about. The common wisdom is that most retail investors underperform the market and there is no reason to think I am any different. Long AFK, EWJ but going to sell EWJ soon; however I am long in equities in many of the regions discussed above via other vehicles, which will be discussed in future articles.


So, on some timescales the S&P 500 appears to grow faster than developing countries, on others the developing countries appear to grow faster. However, in the long term, we know that mature economies cannot grow as fast as developing ones:

(figure 4 from http://faculty.insead.edu/fatas/wall/wall.pdf )

Note that the blob in the lower left of the above scatterplot shows that lack of maturity is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for the highest growth potential. Consistent with this, the blue line at the bottom of this figure represent the AFK Market Vectors Africa ETF:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?$SPX,AFK,EFA,FXI,EEM,EMU,EWJ

(note: this is a chart of "total return", meaning including dividends, rather than just stock prices; apparently Yahoo finance just shows the stock price without adding in dividends, which can be highly misleading if some of the securities you are comparing have a high yield).


I don't

But not necessarily U.S. equities.

So, if emerging economies are where it's at, why would you ever want to put any money in mature economies at all?

1) Fear of persistent underdevelopment. You are worried that you'll throw money into a country in the lower-left corner of the figure. 2) High volatility. When the world economy goes up, stock prices in emerging economies tend to go up more, but when it crashes, they tend to go down more. 3) Market timing. You think that in the long-term, emerging economy X will grow a lot, but right now, you think it's in a bubble. 4) Fear of market timing due to lack of local knowledge. You think you know whether or not there's a bubble in the country where you live but you have no idea what's going on in some other country. 5) Investing in multinational companies listed in a stock exchange in a mature economy isn't the same as betting on the growth rate of that particular economy. 6) Diversification. You want to put most of your money in emerging economies but you'll put some in mature economies just to be careful.

The U.S. no longer rules the world.


(click to enlarge)Total return chart from http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?SPY,AFK,EFA,FXI,EEM,EMU,EWJ,VGK since 2010

(total returns chart from http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?$SPX,AFK,EFA,FXI,EEM,EMU,EWJ,VGK)

This is a chart of a bunch of index funds for various regions of the world from 2010 until now. When I look at this, what I see is a bunch of lines relatively correlated with each other, presumably because they are all influenced by the same underlying variable, the strength of the "global equities market". Until, about 3/4s through, the red line loses sync with the rest and goes straight up.

This sort of analysis is highly dubious, however. As you can see, the which line looks unreasonably high depends entirely upon which time you start from. To get a feel for this, I recommend going to http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?$SPX,EFA,FXI,EEM,EMU,EWJ yourself and dragging on the left edge of the slider bar at the bottom, which changes the start time and redraws the chart dynamically.

My view

My view on the U.S. economy is that, over the timescale of a few years, the U.S. economy (and the S&P 500) will continue to grow (but not as quickly as emerging economies). The question is whether or not the S&P 500 has recently gone up "too quickly", leading to a market correction, or whether it will continue to climb. I think neither outcome is unlikely.

The case for continued growth is simple: the U.S. economy is growing, so why shouldn't the stock market? The recent rise could just be the market climbing out of the last of the hole from the crash in 2008.

The case for a correction has two arguments:

1) In the 2011 index fund charts above, you can see that SPX appears to begin an anomalous ascent starting around September 2011. To me, it is scary to be in a market right after it has risen an unusual amount, because a rising market will tend to draw in more people, causing a self-reinforcing but ultimately unsustainable positive feedback loop on prices (a bubble).

When you see an unusually fast ascent, you have to worry: how much of this ascent is due to the individuals upwardly revising their expectation of the value of stocks because of data from the "real" economy, and how much of it is just the result of a positive feedback process in which the rise in the market itself is the main cause of raised expectations?

2) The Fed has been intervening to push down interest rates and U.S. bond yields. This intervention is probably having the effect of causing investors to invest less in bonds than they otherwise would have, and to put more of their money into equities instead. I experienced this myself; a few months ago I was thinking of buying one or more government bonds, but when I saw that they are paying negative real interest, I balked.

The Fed will not keep doing this forever. At some point, bond yields will rise to their "natural" level, and then investors may take some of their money out of the stock market and put more of it into bonds, and at some point prior to that, there will be pressure on the stock market to fall in anticipation of that. I can't say if this pressure is a big deal, if will be enough to make the market go down; perhaps it will just cause it to rise imperceptibly less rapidly.

I would expect that this effect is buoying all equities around the world, and I don't know how much it would target U.S. equities. However, the fact that Operation Twist was announced in September 2011, the same time as the beginning of the anomalous rise in SPX in the above charts, worries me.

Admiral Ackbar "It's a trap"

(maybe)

You and I aren't the first ones to notice this. We shouldn't assume that this information isn't already incorporated into prices; it would be foolish to bet a lot of money that we can "time the market". The average growth rate of stocks is faster than most other things, so if we don't think we know better than the market, we shouldn't do anything. That doesn't mean we should put 100% of our savings into stocks; we should put some of it into other things in any case, because lowering risk has value.

What to do When in doubt, interpolate.

While it may not be a bad idea to try to time the market, I think it is definitely a bad idea to bet too much on one's ability to due so (at least, unless you have evidence more rigorous than what I've presented). So I'm going to have a mix of equity and other things, but with less equity in the mix than I would have if I didn't have misgivings.

Another consequence of not wanting to bet too much money on my or anyone else's ability to beat the market is that try to buy a representative sample (in my opinion) of the entire market, which means I like index funds.

But this doesn't mean that I'm buying SPY (an S&P 500 index ETF). Because of the anomalous rise seen in the chart at the beginning of this article, I don't think that is really a representative sample of "the market". In upcoming columns I will go into detail about which equities, and which alternatives, I'm investing in.

Disclaimer: I am a cognitive studies student, not a successful investor, and I don't know what I'm talking about. I am certainly not a financial advisor, and my intention is just to share my thinking about my own investments, rather than to construct a portfolio that would be ideal for others. The common wisdom is that most retail investors underperform the market and there is no reason to think I am any different. Long AFK, EWJ but going to sell EWJ soon; however I am long in equities in many of the regions discussed above via other vehicles, which will be discussed in future articles.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/317709-the-known-unknowns-for-2012-part-2-positioning-in-the-global-equity-markets

http://seekingalpha.com/article/430441-why-is-there-so-much-confusion-about-total-return-investing

http://etfdb.com/2011/not-just-eem-vwo-emerging-markets-etf-options/

---

New low-volatility ETFs: SPLV, LVOL, LBTA, SLVY, SLBT, BTAL.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/299413-analyzing-alternatives-to-the-20-most-popular-etfs

http://seekingalpha.com/article/428721-small-cap-etf-gems-russell-factor-etfs-shine


nbg-a

ire

btd bbva

GREK

NBG, STD. Also long NBG-A and STD-B.

std is above book value, so is bbva

ire is .3 IRE/BKIR arb http://seekingalpha.com/article/293163-bank-of-ireland-arbitrage-adrs-at-more-than-double-value-of-london-listed-shares

---

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bond-ETFs-For-Every-Objective-etfdatabase-2839561883.html?x=0


derivatives:

start with a call. describe.

OTM example: IBM is trading at $10.

a guy goes up to another guy and says, 'hey, how much will you charge me to purchase a contract that gives me the right, but not the responsibility, to buy IBM from you, anytime I want between now and a week from now, for $16'?

the second guy says, "Um, hey buddy, I'll write that the contract if you want, but you know that IBM is $10 right now, don't you? Why don't you just buy it now for $10?"

the first guy says, "I'm worried that it might go down and I don't want to take the risk. I want you to take that risk for me. Or, maybe I think IBM is going to $100 over the next few days, but I don't have $10 right now (or maybe i'd rather invest it somewhere else in the meantime*). Or maybe I want to bet that IBM will go DOWN, not up, but if I short IBM and i'm wrong and it goes way up I could go broke so i want some protection but only if it skyrockets."

the second guy says, "Huh? Well, whatever. I don't think IBM is going anywhere but down, so i don't want to buy it now and hold it for you -- if it doesn't go above the strike, you won't exercise the contract, and i'd be stuck with a loss. I'll just buy it next week if you really want it. Most likely it won't go past $16 and you won't do anything. But.. i guess if IBM DOES go to $100 in a week, I'd lose a lot of money. I'll have to charge you some money now to make up for that. Or I guess i could buy it now and charge you enough to cover my expected loss (in case it goes down)."

the first guy says, "OK, but it better not be much. Certainly not more than $10, because then I could just buy IBM, and if i did that, i'd still have $10 if it didn't go up. In fact, it better be a lot less than $10, because, really, what's the liklikhood that IBM will go over $16 anyway?"

Now, ITM example:

Same as the above but IBM is trading at $20.

a guy goes up to another guy and says, 'hey, how much will you charge me to purchase a contract that gives me the right, but not the responsibility, to buy IBM from you, anytime I want between now and a week from now, for $16'?

the second guy says, "Um, well IBM is $20 now, so I agreed to that you could just exercise your right as soon as I signed that paper and I'd lose $4. So I'll have to charge you at least $4, and i'll have to add an additional fee on top in case IBM goes up. Why don't you just buy IBM for $16 now?"

the first guy says, "Well, the reasons are pretty much the same as that other time I bought the OTM call from you with the $16 strike."

the second guy says, "Why do you want to pay me $4 plus a fee now, then, instead of just setting the strike at $20 and just paying me the fee?"

the first guy says, "Well, it's true that if IBM goes below $16, i will wish i had set the strike at $20 and not paid you that $4. But i think it's fairly likely that IBM will stay above $16. In case I do exercise the contract, I don't want to have paid you much in addition to the cost of the stock; the additional fee that you should charge me should be less than the fee if i had set the strike at $20"

the second guy says, "Why should I charge you any less in this case? I still have to worry about IBM going to $100. And I have to put aside that $4 that you gave me because you can exercise the contract anytime."

the first guy says, "Yeah but what if IBM goes under $16? Then I won't exercise, you keep your fee, AND the $4. In fact, if it goes under $20, you'll still have made more money because you keep the $4 regardless. Another way to look at it is that you could choose to hedge by buying IBM now using the $4 i gave you and another $16 of your own money, and then if IBM loses money, you still come out ahead unless it goes lower than $16 (minus your additional fee); so it's like only 16/20th of your money is at risk, compared to if the strike was 0."

the second guy says, "OK, i'll still have to charge you a fee to cover my loss in the case that IBM goes up, but I guess it can be a little less because of that."

Note that in the limit, a call with a $0 strike is equivalent to the underlying (excluding dividends and details like that). So the price for this should be the same for the underlying.

At some point the cost of the bid-ask spread for buying the option could mean that an option with a strike greater than zero would cost as much as the underlying -- there would be no point to buying such an option.

---

mb a simpler presentation than the above. later note: not sure i agree with the following anymore, but i'm not going to bother to reread it just yet to see.

Options for the rest of us

Usually, when you buy a security, when it's price goes up, you make money, and when it goes down, you lose money. But have you ever had a stock and you thought, 'Gee, I want to own this stock because I think it'll go up, but what if it goes DOWN? I don't want to lose all that money'. Well, this is capitalism, and in fact there is an insurance service that you can buy that will pay you if your stock goes down. It's called a "put option". What you do is you buy a put option on your stock, and you specify a "strike price" (for now, just assume you choose the strike to be the current price of the stock), and if the value of that stock falls below the strike, the insurer will buy the stock from you for the strike, so that in effect you haven't lost any money (if you choose, you could take the money they paid you for the stock and use it to buy the same stock back again, except that now the stock is cheaper -- so in effect you could end up owning the stock but you got paid the amount by which it fell). Of course, you have to pay an insurance premium up front for this service.

So, you can buy a put option when you want to insure yourself against a fall in the price of a stock you own. Put options are more flexible than that, though; you can even buy a put if you don't own the underlying stock at all. In this case, you will still get paid if the price of that stock falls, so what you are really doing is making a bet that the stock price will fall.

Instead of thinking of buying a stock as making a bet that its price will rise, imagine breaking that bet into two parts: (A) a bet that the price won't fall past its current price, and (B) a bet that the price will rise past its current price. The "put" option is the opposite of (A); when you buy a put option, you are betting that the price WILL fall. This bet cancels out the bet in (A) and the result is that if you buy a stock and then buy a put on that stock with the "strike price" set to the current price, you no longer care if the price falls, but you are still happy if it rises (you still have bet (B)).

Now amazingly, the financial system is so flexible that this form of insurance doesn't have to be provided by an insurance company, but rather anyone, even another individual, can create put options and sell them to people. Why would you want to do that (to create and sell a put option to someone else, that is, to "write a put option")? Well, first off, you might just want to sell insurance to people and get paid the premiums. But let's look at another case.

What if there is a stock that you are interested in, but you think it's "overbought", that is, you think it's a good company overall but you are worried that its current price might be too high? You might think that there's nothing to be done, that you'll just have to wait and hope the price comes down so that you can buy it. But, if you're sure that you'd buy it if it got cheaper, you can formally promise to do that, and get paid by the market in exchange for this (markets love to know things, so they'll pay you for creating certainty). So, say stock XYZ is at $300 and you would buy it if it went down to $250. You sell a put option with a strike price of $250, and you get paid a premium up front. Now, if the price goes down lower than $250, you have to buy the stock at a price of $250. At that point, you might wish you could pay the lower, market price, but a promise is a promise -- and this way, everyone wins: the other person got the peace of mind knowing they wouldn't have to worry if it fell below $250, you get to buy your stock at the price you wanted, and you even got paid a premium for doing what you wanted to do anyways.

You can also look at the put seller as just taking the other side of bet (A); the put seller is betting that the price won't fall below the strike price (actually, the seller's breakeven point is a little bit lower than the strike because they got paid a premium; if the strike is $250 and the premium is $5, and the price falls to $245, then the seller was paid $5 as a premium but has to pay out $5 of insurance and so they breakeven).

So, now we know why someone would want to buy a put, and why someone would want to sell a put. Now we turn to the symmetrical opposite of a put, a "call option". Whereas puts concern the bet that the stock will fall (or will not fall, from the seller's point of view), a call concerns a bet that the stock will rise. That is, calls concern the bet (B), above; the bet that the stock price will go up past its current price.

Let's say you think a stock will go down. So you want to short the stock, but then you worry, what if the price goes up? Well, you can buy a call, which is insurance against the stock price going up. So just like buying a put, a call protects you from losing money on your position, but whereas a put protects a stock buyer (someone who is long the stock), the call protects a short seller.

Why would someone sell a call? Again, they might want to sell insurance and collect the premiums. Or, they might own a stock but they want to get out of their position. But they think the stock is currently underbought and that its price is too low and might go up soon. So, conditional upon the price rising past a certain level, they plan to sell the stock. In exchange for promising to do this in advance, they get paid a premium. And, the third way of looking at a call option is that it is a bet that the stock won't rise past a certain price.

So, all four roles (put buyer, put seller, call buyer, call seller) can be explained in terms of breaking the bet (the risk) that the underlying security will rise in price into two parts: a bet that it won't fall past the strike price, and a bet that it will rise past the strike price.

Other crazy things you can do with options: when the strike price is not equal to the current price

Now why would someone want to sell you a put option? Let's say that

You can think of buying a stock as making two bets:

--

flot fltr flrn 1.66 yield? Royal Bank of Scotland, Danske Bank, and Toronto Dominion Bank blkn -- junk bono latin american bonds WisdomTree? Emerging Markets Local Debt (ELD) and Market Vectors EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC). "Obviously, the heavyweight funds in the space--which sport limited but nontrivial exposure to Latin America--are WisdomTree? Emerging Markets Local Debt (ELD) and Market Vectors EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC). WisdomTree? also has its own Latin American bond fund in registration with the SEC, as we mentioned last October." Guggenheim Enhanced Adjustable Rate Senior Loan ETF, Rydex S&P SmallCap? 600 Equal Weight ETF " Accuvest Global Opportunities ETF (ACCU), which we wrote about two weeks ago after AdvisorShares? had issued a press release on its plans, would employ Accuvest Global Advisors' top-down macroeconomic scoring system to evaluate and pick countries, and not individual equities. Then, the proposed fund would invest in single-country ETFs, with an overall aim of seeking long-term capital appreciation in excess of global equity benchmarks like the MSCI All Country World Index. "

short ? Topping the list is iShares S&P North American Technology-Software Index (IGV), which was propelled by strong results from BMC Software (BMC) and Symantec (SYMC)

d Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI),

Global X Files for Risk Parity ETF On Friday, April 20, Global X submitted paperwork with the SEC seeking permission to launch a "risk parity" ETF.

First, the proposed PowerShares? China A-Share Portfolio would hold derivatives providing exposure to China A-Shares stocks. At present, most non-Chinese investors are barred from investing in the A-Shares market. To circumvent that restriction, some U.S. ETF issuers have started using total return swaps on A-Shares companies to gain that exposure.

Next, the proposed PowerShares? DWA SmallCap? Technical Leaders Portfolio would track an equal-weight Dorsey Wright index that culls about 200 small-cap companies from a universe of about 2,000 small caps. The index identifies firms displaying powerful relative strength characteristics by scrutinizing their market performance. PowerShares? currently issues three other ETFs using the Dorsey Wright methodology.

Finally, PowerShares? filed for permission to create five actively managed allocation-oriented ETFs employing quantitative, rules-based strategies. The proposed PowerShares? Global Macro Portfolio would hold commodity, foreign exchange, and financial derivatives, while the proposed PowerShares? Emerging Markets Equity Allocation Portfolio would hold emerging-markets stocks, futures contracts on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and futures contracts on an emerging-markets volatility index.

LEMB - Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond Fund Profile

http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/emerging-markets-bonds/

http://etfdb.com/2012/five-juicy-high-yield-bond-etfs-for-2012/

Vanguard Short Term Corporate Debt ETF (VCSH)

CAD Canada Bond Index Fund $103.97 -0.22% $18,745 2,702 +1.07%

http://etfdb.com/type/bond/emerging-markets/

toread: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bond-ETFs-For-Every-Objective-etfdatabase-2839561883.html?x=0

bkln

Use These ETFs to Bet Against Europe Like Paulson (EUO, BUND ... www.benzinga.com/.../bonds/.../use-these-etfs-to-bet-against-europe-l... Apr 17, 2012 – Use These ETFs to Bet Against Europe Like Paulson (EUO, BUND, EWI) ... fund manager John Paulson is shorting European sovereign bonds ...


SLBT XLBT

EMHY HYXU

MLPA


" RBS China Trendpilot ETN (TCHI) tracks an index that invests either in a basket of Chinese stocks listed on U.S. exchanges or in an investment in three-month U.S. Treasury bills. When TCHI's index closes at or above its historical 100-day moving average for three consecutive trading sessions, it shows a "positive trend" and shifts to Chinese equities. When the index is at or below that moving average for three straight trading days, the ETN detects a "negative trend" and shifts to an investment in three-month Treasuries.

Much evidence suggests that investor underreaction to new information creates the potential for price momentum, which could bolster risk-adjusted returns here relative to a traditional static strategy.

The index's Chinese equities all are listed in the United States, with about a fourth of the index devoted to IT companies such as Baidu (BIDU) and NetEase? (NTES) and another 24% composed of energy companies such as PetroChina? (PTR) and CNOOC (CEO). Telecommunication-services firms such as China Mobile (CHL) make up another 19% of the index.

Similar to RBS' other ETNs, TCHI has a high, hybrid pricing structure, charging a 1.1% fee when its index contains Chinese equities and assessing 0.50% when the index shifts to Treasuries. Given Treasury exchange-traded funds' low price tags and given China ETFs' lower fees, this is a fairly expensive strategy, but investors here are paying as much for convenience as anything else. Investors could replicate this strategy more cheaply by buying a pair of very liquid ETFs. First, an investor could buy an ETF holding U.S.-listed securities of companies deriving the majority of their revenue from China, such as PowerShares? Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio (PGJ) (0.60% expense ratio). Then, an investor could pair that fund with SPDR Barclays Capital 1-3 Month T-Bill (BIL) at 0.14%. "

---

etfs i dont like right now:

ibnd: duration 4.7 yrs picb: duration 6 yrs ihy: duration 4.7 yrs (but good yield) cwb: avg maturity (effective duration not given) >10 yrs


"

However, ordinary investors may want to give the bonds a go in their income portfolios. First, these bonds act like an insurance policy for equities. In falling markets, bond holders sit back and collect the securities juicy yields. While in rising markets, the bonds can be "converted" into shares of the underlying firm, benefiting from capital appreciation. According to Bloomberg, since 1995, the S&P 500 had negative performance for 51 out of 185 rolling 12-month periods. During that time, a broad measure of convertible bonds outperformed the S&P during 44 of those periods, by an average of 7.6%. In addition, converts participated on average in 83% of the upside during the rising phases. Secondly, during bankruptcy proceedings, converts rank higher than equities, given them a more favorable position on the ladder. Finally, yields for the average convertible bond tend to be higher than the company's stock dividend yield. This helps with outperformance during sideways or flat markets. "

With nearly $800 million in assets, the SPDR Barclays Capital Convertible ETF (ARCA:CWB) is the largest exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the sector. The fund tracks 99 different converts from issuers such as Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and EMC (NYSE:EMC) and yields a healthy 3.37%. The ETF has performed well, producing an annualized 14.75% return since its inception in 2009. Offering a lower maturity profile and cheaper expenses, the smaller PowerShares? Convertible (ARCA:CVRT) makes an interesting choice as well.

Some the biggest and largest bargains in the space could be had in the various convertible closed-end funds. Asset manager Calamos (Nasdaq:CLMS) made their name specializing in the bond type. However, the firm has recently begun closing their funds to new investments. The Calamos Convertible & High Income Fund (NYSE:CHY) offers exposure to the asset manager at almost a 2.5% discount to its net asset value. Likewise, the Advent Claymore Global Convertible Securities & Income Fund (NYSE:AGC) offers global exposure to the convertibles market, with nearly 40% of its holdings outside of the U.S. The fund can be currently had for about an 8.96% discount and 8.28% yield. (For additional reading, see Open Your Eyes To Closed-End Funds.)

The Bottom Line Given the low interest rate environment, income investors have continually sought new ways to find yields. One such ignored opportunity, is in the world of convertible bonds. These securities which offer both attributes of bonds and equities could be exactly what a portfolio needs. The previous funds, along with the Bancroft Fund (AMEX:BCV) make interesting choices within the sector. (To learn more, check out Convertible Bonds: An Introduction.)


gmtb BOND ---

http://seekingalpha.com/article/21780-powershares-preferred-stock-etf-just-doesn-t-stack-up

PGF inadequately diversified


BPP $11.42 0.02 (0.18%) BlackRock? Credit Allocation Income Trust III

huh this isnt in ETFdb, are exchange traded CEFs not considered ETFs?

" ETFs are investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 as open-end funds or unit investment trusts. ETFs do not sell or redeem individual shares at net asset value, but only in large blocks (such as 50,000 shares). " http://seekingalpha.com/article/487921-investors-should-avoid-these-best-performing-cefs

FFC $18.43 0.06 (0.33%) Flaherty & Crumrine / Claymore Preferred Securities Income Fund Inc

http://seekingalpha.com/article/479901-preferred-cef-showdown-final-the-shootout-my-top-pick

http://seekingalpha.com/article/89666-income-etfs-vs-cefs

http://www.hapetfs.com/pub/en/etfs/?etf=HPR&r=o

http://www.nuveen.com/CEF/Product/Overview.aspx?fundcode=JFP

http://www.nuveen.com/CEF/Product/Overview.aspx?fundcode=JPC

---

low beta international cefs:

Total Results: 11 Default View (criteria)

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Total results meeting all criteria : 11AS OF 11:59 pm ET 05/08/12 Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Log in for real time quote. Don't see a security you expected? Action Score† CEF Name Symbol Leveraged Asset Class Beta (Month-End 3 Yr) 15 JAPAN SMALLER CAP FUND

JOF No International Stock 0.35 17 JHANCOCK TAXADVANTAGED GBL SHRHLDR YLD

HTY No International Stock 0.48 19 ING GLOBAL ADVANTAGE AND PREMIUM OPP

IGA No International Stock 0.50 20 JAPAN EQUITY

JEQ No International Stock 0.55 20 MORGAN STANLEY CHINA A SHARE

CAF No International Stock 0.55 21 ING GLOBAL EQUITY DIVIDEND AND PREM OPP

IGD No International Stock 0.57 22 WELLS FARGO ADVANTAGE GLBL DIV OPPORT

EOD No International Stock 0.58 24 NUVEEN GLOBAL VALUE OPPORTUNITIES

JGV No International Stock 0.63 24 EATON VANCE TX-MGD GLBL BUY-WRITE OPP

ETW No International Stock 0.64 25 MORGAN STANLEY FRONTIER EMERGING MARKETS

FFD No International Stock 0.65 26 BLACKROCK S&P QUALITY RANKINGS GLB EQ MG

BQY No International Stock 0.69

http://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/goto/snapshot/snapshot.jhtml?symbols=FFD

low beta high 3-yr sharpe etfs:

PROSHARES ULTRA YEN

YCL ETF Leveraged -0.15 0.69 56 ISHARES BARCLAYS 1-3 YEAR CREDIT BOND

CSJ ETF No 0.28 2.56 53 DB-X 2010 TARGET DATE FUND

TDD ETF No 0.28 1.60 53 SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES

XLU ETF No 0.31 1.53 53 VANGUARD UTILITIES INDEX FUND

VPU ETF No 0.34 1.57 54 POWERSHARES PREFERRED PORTFOLIO

PGX ETF No 0.34 1.69 54 ISHARES DOW JONES US UTILITIES

IDU ETF No 0.36 1.59 56 ISHARES S&P CONSERVATIVE ALLOCATION FUND

AOK ETF No 0.40 1.89 54 GUGGENHEIM S&P EQUAL WEIGHT UTILITIES

RYU ETF No 0.41 1.54 38 PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD

UGL ETF Leveraged 0.42 1.03 54 POWERSHARES DYNAMIC FOOD AND BEVERAGE

PBJ ETF No 0.46 1.52 56 SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES

XLP ETF No 0.47 1.78 40 POWERSHARES DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG ETN

DGP ETN Leveraged 0.47 1.06 56 VANGUARD CONSUMER STAPLES INDEX FUND

VDC ETF No 0.48 1.81 57 GUGGENHEIM S&P EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER STAPLES

RHS ETF No 0.52 1.78 51 FIRST TRUST UTILITIES ALPHADEX FUND

FXU ETF No 0.52 1.33 56 ISHARES S&P TARGET DATE RETIREMENT INCOME ETF

TGR ETF No 0.52 1.74 55 FIRST TRUST CONSUMER STAPLES ALPHADEX FUND

FXG ETF No 0.53 1.61 58 VANGUARD SHORT-TERM BOND ETF

BSV ETF No 0.54 2.18 55 POWERSHARES DYNAMIC CONSUMER STAPLES SECTOR

PSL ETF No 0.55 1.54 40 E-TRACS UBS BLOOMBERG CMCI GOLD ETN

UBG ETN No 0.56 1.05 58 GUGGENHEIM DEFENSIVE EQUITY ETF

DEF ETF No 0.57 1.99 45 SPDR GOLD TRUST

GLD ETF No 0.58 1.13 53 SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE

XLV ETF No 0.58 1.36 58 FIRST TRUST MORNINGSTAR DIVIDEND LEADERS

FDL ETF No 0.58 1.79

http://research2.fidelity.com/fidelity/screeners/commonstock/index.asp?page=landing.asp

low beta:

	1	POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR BULLISH FUND

UUP ETF No -47.36 2 IPATH S&P 500 VIX SHORT-TERM FUTURES ETN

VXX ETN No -3.37 6 IPATH S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN

VXZ ETN No -1.64 9 IPATH OPTIMIZED CURRENCY CARRY ETN

ICI ETN No -1.05 9 MARKET VECTORS-RENMINBI/USD ETN

CNY ETN No -1.04 10 PROSHARES ULTRA YEN

YCL ETF Leveraged -0.15 11 SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF

JNK ETF No -0.06 11 WISDOMTREE DREYFUS CHINESE YUAN FUND

CYB ETF No -0.05 11 ISHARES BARCLAYS SHORT TREASURY BOND

SHV ETF No 0.01 11 IPATH DOW JONES-UBS LIVESTOCK ETN

COW ETN No 0.03 11 ISHARES IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND

HYG ETF No 0.07 11 POWERSHARES HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND PORTFOLIO

PHB ETF No 0.09 11 E-TRACS UBS BLOOMBERG CMCI LIVESTOCK ETN

UBC ETN No 0.11 12 ISHARES S&P SHORT TERM NATIONAL AMT-FREE BOND ETF

SUB ETF No 0.20 12 IQ HEDGE MULTI-STRATEGY TRACKER ETF

QAI ETF No 0.25 12 POWERSHARES ACTIVE LOW DURATION FUND

PLK ETF No 0.27 12 SPDR BARCLAYS SHORT TERM MUNICIPAL BOND

SHM ETF No 0.28 12 ISHARES BARCLAYS 1-3 YEAR CREDIT BOND

CSJ ETF No 0.28 12 DB-X 2010 TARGET DATE FUND

TDD ETF No 0.28 12 ISHARES BARCLAYS 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND FUND

SHY ETF No 0.29 13 SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES

XLU ETF No 0.31 13 WISDOMTREE JAPAN SMALLCAP DIVIDEND

DFJ ETF No 0.33 13 VANGUARD UTILITIES INDEX FUND

VPU ETF No 0.34 13 POWERSHARES PREFERRED PORTFOLIO

PGX ETF No 0.34 13 S&P CTI ETN

LSC ETN No 0.34

low beta with poor performance last year:

	30	GULF STATES INDEX ETF

MES ETF No 0.64 -10.13% 28 ISHARES S&P/TOPIX 150

ITF ETF No 0.56 -9.99% 28 ISHARES S&P GLOBAL UTILITIES

JXI ETF No 0.64 -11.18% 28 ISHARES MSCI-JAPAN

EWJ ETF No 0.53 -9.89% 27 SPDR RUSSELL/NOMURA PRIME JAPAN ETF

JPP ETF No 0.50 -10.18% 24 E-TRACS UBS BLOOMBERG CMCI LIVESTOCK ETN

UBC ETN No 0.11 -10.58% 17 IPATH S&P 500 VIX MID-TERM FUTURES ETN

VXZ ETN No -1.64 -15.09% 17 IPATH DOW JONES-UBS ALUMINUM ETN

JJU ETN No 0.65 -25.67% 14 S&P CTI ETN

LSC ETN No 0.34 -23.83% 11 IPATH DOW JONES-UBS NATURAL GAS ETN

GAZ ETN No 0.61 -49.68% 10 UNITED STATES NATURAL GAS FUND

UNG ETF No 0.59 -62.02% 5 IPATH S&P 500 VIX SHORT-TERM FUTURES ETN

VXX ETN No -3.37 -31.72%

---

http://etfdailynews.com/2011/02/08/using-etfs-to-access-alternatives-vixy-vixm-wdti-alt-rals-grv-lsc-hdge-xvix-qai-mna-csma-mcro/

http://www.closed-endfunds.com/FundSelector/Classifications.fs#ClassDetailResults


http://www.cefconnect.com/


fidelity convertible cef screen:

ADVENT CLAYMORE CONVERTIBLE SEC & INC

AVK Yes Convertible Bond

ADVENT CLAYMORE CONVERTIBLE SECS& INC II

AGC Yes Convertible Bond

AGIC CONVERTIBLE & INCOME

NCV Yes Convertible Bond

AGIC CONVERTIBLE & INCOME II

NCZ Yes Convertible Bond

BANCROFT FUND

BCV No Convertible Bond

CALAMOS CONVERTIBLE & HIGH INCOME FUND

CHY Yes Convertible Bond

CALAMOS CONVERTIBLE OPP INC

CHI Yes Convertible Bond

ELLSWORTH FUND

ECF No Convertible Bond

GABELLI CONV INC SECS

GCV Yes Convertible Bond

PUTNAM HIGH INCOME SECURITIES

PCF No Convertible Bond

---

MORGAN STANLEY FRONTIER EMERGING MARKETS

FFD No Diversified Emerging Markets


CEF 1-mo discount < -7, 1-yr discount > -5:

BLACKROCK UTILITY & INFRASTRUC

BUI No -7.15% -0.64%

FIRST TRUST ACTIVE DIVIDEND INCOME FUND

FAV No -9.28% -4.37%

NUVEEN BUILD AMERICA BOND OPPORTUNITY

NBD Yes -7.05% -4.80%

NUVEEN PENNSYLVANIA MUNICIPAL VALUE

NPN Yes -7.54% -4.70%

CEF 1-mo discount < -7, 1-yr discount > -7:

ADVENT CLAYMORE CONVERTIBLE SECS& INC II

AGC Yes -7.03% -5.96%

ALPINE TOTAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND

AOD Yes -7.42% -6.11%

BLACKROCK ENHANCED CAPITAL AND INCOME

CII No -7.35% -5.75%

BLACKROCK ENHANCED DIVIDEND ACHIEVERS

BDJ No -10.93% -6.92%

BLACKROCK INTERNATIONAL GROWTH & INCOME

BGY No -8.61% -5.63%

BLACKROCK UTILITY & INFRASTRUC

BUI No -7.15% -0.64%

FIRST TRUST ACTIVE DIVIDEND INCOME FUND

FAV No -9.28% -4.37%

JOHN HANCOCK HEDGED EQUITY & INCOME FUND

HEQ No -10.39% -6.86%

KAYNE ANDERSON MIDSTREAM ENERGY FUND

KMF Yes -7.08% -6.92%

NUVEEN BUILD AMERICA BOND OPPORTUNITY

NBD Yes -7.05% -4.80%

NUVEEN PENNSYLVANIA MUNICIPAL VALUE

NPN Yes -7.54% -4.70%

TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS

EMF No -7.82% -6.12%

< -10, > -10

BLACKROCK ENHANCED DIVIDEND ACHIEVERS

BDJ No -10.93% -6.92%

DWS GLOBAL HIGH INCOME

LBF Yes -10.32% -9.86%

INDIA FUND

IFN No -10.26% -8.33%

JAPAN EQUITY

JEQ No -11.13% -10.00%

JOHN HANCOCK HEDGED EQUITY & INCOME FUND

HEQ No -10.39% -6.86%

LAZARD WORLD DIVIDEND & INCOME

LOR Yes -10.62% -8.01%

MONTGOMERY STREET INCOME SEC

MTS No -10.13% -9.58%

MORGAN STANLEY EMERGING MARKETS DEBT

MSD Yes -10.18% -9.91%

MORGAN STANLEY INDIA INVESTMENT

IIF No -11.21% -8.02%

NUVEEN TAX-ADVANTAGED FLOATING RATE

JFP No -11.96% -8.05%

PYXIS CREDIT STRATEGIES FUND

HCF Yes -11.70% -7.61%

WESTERN ASSET CLAYMORE INFL LNKD SEC&INC

WIA No -10.28% -8.58%

< -20, > -20

RENN GLOBAL ENTREPRENEURS FUND

RCG No -22.31% -19.90%

---

	11	FOXBY CORP

FXBY Yes -23.48% -29.03% 2.03%

dont like, apple and google


todo: preferred shares funds

http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?pgid=hetopquote&t=pgx

http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?pgid=hetopquote&t=pgf

http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?pgid=hetopquote&t=psk

http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=IPFF&region=USA&culture=en-us

http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=IPFF&region=USA&culture=en-us

http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/PFF.htm

buy/write:

nuveen buy/write

http://seekingalpha.com/article/463281-nuveen-s-buy-write-funds-do-work?source=yahoo

http://cef.morningstar.com/quote?pgid=hetopquote&t=jpg

http://cef.morningstar.com/quote?pgid=hetopquote&t=eTv

http://seekingalpha.com/article/314510-the-best-buy-write-closed-end-funds


Powershares Autonomic Balanced Growth NFA Global Asset Portfolio (PAO) and the IndexIQ? Hedge Fund (QAI) are two examples of such funds.

PTO - Ibbotson Alternative Completion Portfolio Profile

MATH - Meidell Tactical Advantage ETF Profile

ONEF - Russell Equity ETF Profile

GCE - Claymore CEF GS Connect ETN Profile

IYLD - Morningstar Multi-Asset Income Index Fund Profile

http://seekingalpha.com/article/299483-can-hedge-fund-replication-etfs-offer-safety

http://seekingalpha.com/article/286425-do-sophisticated-hedged-etfs-deliver

---

dont buy http://seekingalpha.com/article/511271-mlpa-another-c-corp-double-taxation-etf

Like its two predecessors, Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) (see AMLP’s Dirty Little Secret) and Yorkville High Income MLP ETF (YMLP) (see YMLP: Another Abomination of the ETF Wrapper), MLPA exploits a suspected loophole in SEC regulations.

but mb buy those MLPs directly..

GYLD has some MLP that doesnt have this prob...

mb clone this guy?

http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?pgid=hetopquote&t=pcef

or buy pcef outright if the discount increases.. or mb just buy it now..

mb clone guys like these:

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aok


http://seekingalpha.com/article/316960-leveraged-loan-investments-cef-and-etf-possibilities-part-i


ok where to park cash?

A: sell http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/pdfhighlights/PDF-ExchPhysical.php (use "Yield Optimizer" in TWS and "invest excess cash")

be sure and compute the commission rates to see if a round trip transaction would still be profitable --- however due to the spread (.5% on the one i checked) it probably would not be

Q: is the yield displayed in the Yield Optimizer annualized?


toread

http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/Floating-Rate-Loans-Look-Attractive-BKLN-FLOT-FLRN-PPR-FCT0402.aspx#axzz1uVnZv7gu

http://www.istockanalyst.com/finance/story/5577009/new-etf-floating-rate-bond-spdr-flrn-fltr-agg-flot


"

Kevin, nice find. That CZA looks interesting. I was also looking at NFO for some quant alpha. Claymore really has to get their marketing act together and promote themselves. They've had some interesting ETF's that have gone dark. Check out IRO for instance, that dividend rotation ETF trounced all other dividend ETF's as well as the Alpine closed end divvy rotation train wrecks (AOD & AGD). "

---

http://etfdb.com/2011/quant-based-etfs-in-focus/

KNOW NFO TTFS

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-04-21/markets/30061651_1_etfs-exchange-traded-products-capitalization-weighted

http://www.etftrends.com/2010/08/ins-outs-quant-etfs/

http://www.quant-shares.com/

CHEP

http://etfdb.com/2010/four-alpha-seeking-etfs-crushing-spy/

http://seekingalpha.com/article/40917-a-guide-to-strategy-etfs ALT

CRO MNA GCE PNXQ WDTI

here's what's wrong with MNA, it's not actually doing merger arbitrage as traditionally understood: http://thedealsleuth.wordpress.com/2009/11/10/wheres-the-arbitrage-in-the-new-merger-arbitrage-etf/

the index that csma tracks is better, according to Credit Suisse Merger Arbitrage Liquid Index - Liquid Alternative Beta ... alternativebeta.credit-suisse.com/.../... File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick View Credit Suisse Merger Arbitrage Liquid Index. Asset Management. Contacts ir.betastrategies@credit-suisse.com www.credit-suisse.com/alternativebeta. ILAB<Go> ...

however its performance is unimpressive: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CSMA+Interactive#symbol=csma;range=2y;compare=spy;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

whereas private hedge fund merger arbitrage has done better: http://beta.fool.com/bhessel/2012/04/20/hedge-fund-strategy-etfs-reconsidered/3791/

http://wallstreetpit.com/91006-13f-etfs-are-coming-stay-away

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/etfs/how_to/articles/-75909.cfm

http://seekingalpha.com/article/31075-quant-strategy-broad-etfs

http://seekingalpha.com/article/61532-will-2008-be-the-year-of-the-quant-etf

http://seekingalpha.com/article/207924-under-the-microscope-powershares-dynamic-magniquant-etf

http://etfdb.com/2009/special-report-alpha-etfs-come-of-age/

http://etfdb.com/issuer/first-trust/

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/ETF/articles/106423/Innovative-ETFs-A-Rules-Based-Strategy-ETF.aspx

http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/Spice-Up-Your-Portfolio-With-Quantitative-ETFs-MNA-PDP-PWC0413.aspx#axzz1uVnZv7gu

http://etfdailynews.com/2011/04/21/passive-or-active-closer-look-at-quant-based-etfs-fex-pdp-ryj-spy/

http://beta.fool.com/bhessel/2012/04/20/hedge-fund-strategy-etfs-reconsidered/3791/

--- dont like this particular one but mb there are others: http://covestor.com/kc-capital-management/quantitative-etf



http://www.quora.com/What-are-the-best-innovations-to-come-out-of-the-financial-industry-in-recent-times ---

https://www.wealthfront.com/


http://www.guggenheimfunds.com/cef/fund/ffc

---

http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/12/05/2565731/the-definitive-guide-to-non-usd-em-bond-etfs


There are a number of mutual funds available that invest in the same type of assets. One I recommend is RidgeWorth? Seix Floating Rate High Inc(SAMBX). It has an expense ratio of .53%, is yielding 5.79% and has a 5 star Morningstar rating. If you have a Schwab account, it trades commission free (must own it at least 90 days to sell commission free).

The only downside is that it is not an ETF so you can't put a stop loss order on it and the price only changes once per day as do all mutual funds.

Since I have owned it the price has only varied by $.01 per share. Like all of the alternatives, SAMBX is vulnerable to the credit risk and therefore the economic cycle. It got killed in the 2008 recession period, but all of the investments in this category suffered the same fate.

Eaton Vance offers an actively managed closed end fund, Eaton Vance Senior Floating Rate Trust (EFR), which has a higher distribution yield, at 7%. The expense ratio for EFR is 1.22%.

SRLN FONE ROOF


interesting chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CVRT+Interactive#symbol=cvrt;range=1y;compare=spy+wdti+bkln+dgs;indicator=sma%285%29+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.html?RSP,CVRT,BKLN,AGG,IAU


things i bought and then sold at a quick loss:

EMLC, LEMB: i figured soverign debt might decline less in a downturn than junk bonds but i was wrong; today these each lost 1% whereas SPY was down .79%. Also, these are trading at a premium to IV of more than 1%.

GYLD: similarly to SPY, declined .73% today. Also, premium of more than 1%.

todo: consider buying these back when i think SPY has fallen enough

note: BKLN didnt fall at all tho, i bought more of that. PHB is rising too, not sure why.

also to buy: HYEM


the purpose of buying put options:

the purpose of buying call options:

the purpose of precious metals:

the purpose of other commodities:

the purpose of stocks:

the purpose of trading strategies:

the purpose of corporate bonds:

the purpose of goverment bonds:

the purpose of junk bonds:

the purpose of bank loans:

the purpose of convertible bonds:


an annual 47 put option on DGS costs ~$882.86 per year righ now ( (12/7)*515 , may 14)

100 units of DGS cost 4474

octave:3> 1/(4474/882.86) ans = 0.19733

so the put option costs more than the yield

but wait 47 is no longer ATM..

an annual 45 strike put costs about 210

octave:6> (12/7.)*210. ans = 360 octave:7> 1/(4474/360) ans = 0.080465

http://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/fund-details.aspx?etfid=53 claims the SEC 30 day yield on DGS is 9.81% (morningstar doesnt list one)

so the put option is less than the yield..

so, if fully insured, this security yields

octave:8> .0981 - 1/(4474/360) ans = 0.017635

but there is also the possibility of capital appreciation

the SEC yield for FLOT is only 1.21% right now

---

STIP is shorter than STPZ

---

" The Inflation Trader Comments (1212)

WIP is a passive, international inflation-linked bond ETF. It is the only one that I know of. Research by Ciccarelli and Mojon and published in 2005 (ECB Working Paper Series 537), 2007 (Kiel Institute Working Papers 1337), 2008 (Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago Working Paper Series WP-08-05), and 2010 (The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol 92(3)) - current abstract at ideas.repec.org/p/chb/...) illustrated that a large portion of the inflation in any of the OECD countries is sourced from a global inflation process. Enduring Investments confirmed this phenomenon. The implication is that a diversified portfolio of international inflation-linked bonds is an interesting alternative to domestic ILBs (especially if idiosyncratically domestic inflation risk shows up in the currency...in which case it would be great to have non-dollar bonds).

Enduring developed a strategy of actively managing ILBs to exploit some valuation anomalies, but WIP captures the systematic "global inflation" bit and is interesting for that reason, IMO. "


a very interesting post arguing convincingly that inflation will shoot up now:

http://mikeashton.wordpress.com/2012/05/08/now-it-begins-again/


" Too many advisors placed precious metals, or grains, or other undiversified commodity bets into customer portfolios, in particular without understanding the effects of contango (e.g., OIL). And they are not as good investments when real yields are high. But over a very long period of time (our studies go back to 1959), commodity indices have been very profitable when invested in beginning in periods of low real rates. It is my opinion that they will be very profitable this time as well. "


INFL ETN and the RINF ETF.

---

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/05/14/seven-biggest-bond-etfs-by-assets-under-management-shy-jnk-hyg-agg-bnd-lqd-tip/


PICB


"

Some of the more interesting choices in the floating rate loan sector can be had via closed ended funds. The ING Prime Rate Trust (NYSE:PPR) is one of the oldest closed end funds (CEF) operating in category and holds 275 different loans. Likewise, the First Trust Senior Floating Rate (NYSE:FCT) and Pioneer Floating Rate Trust (NYSE:PHD) offer broad exposure as well. The funds currently yield 6.23%, 6.25% and 7.03%, respectively. In addition, investors may be able to snag these funds at discounts to their net asset values. All three are trading very close or slightly under their NAVs. "

-- woah, expense rates near 2%!


http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/66482/do-you-need-a-floating-rate-bond-etf

CSJ

http://seekingalpha.com/article/445231-bond-etfs-to-buy-as-rates-rise

http://seekingalpha.com/article/309560-if-you-own-csj-i-would-sell

http://seekingalpha.com/article/473601-adding-relative-strength-to-your-bond-etf-portfolio

http://seekingalpha.com/article/473601-adding-relative-strength-to-your-bond-etf-portfolio

http://seekingalpha.com/article/319612-under-the-hood-exploring-yield-with-csj-and-flot


CSJ MINT BSV VCSH

https://www.google.com/search?q=bsv+csj+mint+bsv&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=ubuntu&channel=fs#q=bsv+csj+mint+bsv&hl=en&client=ubuntu&hs=Lo&channel=fs&prmd=imvns&psj=1&ei=at-xT56uFYm06gHQtOyZCQ&start=10&sa=N&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.r_qf.,cf.osb&fp=1641ae474a1dd5eb&biw=900&bih=1308

---

MBB

---

http://www.vaneck.com/funds/FLTR.aspx http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/FLOT.htm https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=FLRN

http://www.vaneck.com/funds/FLTR.aspx is 91% financials! http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/FLOT.htm is 53% financials https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=FLRN is 67.81% (!) financials

---

http://seekingalpha.com/article/276942-considering-the-implications-of-flot

decision: FLOT but also some other corp bonds that aren't 50% in finance...

consider: CSJ, MINT, BSV, VCSH

http://www.selfdirectedinvestor.com/article/201106/ishares-launches-floating-bond-etf-flot-ishareslaunches.htm/

"The exposure to credit risk creates a yield that is significantly higher than money market-like ETFs such as MINT or BIL."


http://etfdb.com/2010/picking-the-right-money-market-etf/

PowerShares? VRDO Tax-Free Weekly Portfolio (PVI)

This ETF also isn’t really a money market fund, but presents another short-term, low risk option. Variable rate demand obligations (VRDOs) are actually long-term floating-rate bonds. But investors have the option to put VRDOs back to an investment dealer whenever the yield is reset, which is typically on a monthly basis. Generally, interest from VRDOs is exempt from federal income taxes, and often is exempt from state and local income taxes for residents of the issuing state (see holdings of PVI here) .

etfdb.com/2010/picking-the-right-money-market-etf/

CEW

note: CEW has been hit by the recent euro crisis


CEW MINT


http://www.market-topology.com


For a crisis: What would be a relatively liquid basket of liquid instruments uncorrelated to equities such that in almost any given crisis in which equities are crashing, much of the basket's value would be intact?

given the view: that nominal interest rates may rise sharply, and real ones might too

short term cash-ish: 1x MINT (money market) 1x CEW (emerging currency money market) (after it falls) (warning: volatile) 1x Exchange For Physical (EFP)

short term bonds: 1x FLOT (floating rate corporate bonds) 2x STIP (short duration inflation-protected treasuries) 1x ILB (international floating rate bonds) (after it falls) (warning: volatile)

commodities and gold: 1x IAU gold (after it falls) (warning: volatile) 1x USCI (commodities) (warning: volatile)

cash equivalents: 1x cash

real estate: 1x REIT (warning: volatile)

this should survive the scenarios of:


augment with insured traditional portfolio:


http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/12/04/2489467/fast-yield-grabs-with-etfs-pose-risks-fitch-says-mint says mint is too risky

http://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/money-market/

---

http://seekingalpha.com/article/317664-locally-denominated-debt-etfs-the-safest-exposure-to-emerging-market-performance

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/66946/the-best-bond-etf-you-have-never-heard-of-fwdb

FWDB


http://amateurassetallocator.com/2011/02/18/there-is-no-such-thing-as-a-money-market-etf/

http://seekingalpha.com/article/332962-etfs-for-the-capital-preservationist


http://seekingalpha.com/article/332962-etfs-for-the-capital-preservationist

--- exchange for physical investment risks:

http://ibkb.interactivebrokers.com/taxonomy/term/106

" Are there any particular risks that one should be aware of when using SSFs to either invest excess funds or borrow funds at available synthetic rates? Overview:

While the High and Low Synthetic strategies are both hedged positions, the futures leg is subject to a daily cash variation of the mark-to-market gain or loss whereas the stock leg is not (mark-to-market gain or loss is reflected in account equity but there is no cash impact until the position is closed). If, for example, an account holds a High Synthetic position and the stock prices increases significantly, the resultant variation pay on the short futures leg may erode the account’s cash balance resulting in a debit balance which is subject to interest payments. The net effect in this example would be to reduce and potentially erase the earnings on the High Synthetic position "

(also, you want to use Dividend Protected SSFs)


" PVI is a VRDO fund. Another VRDO fund is VRD. Both are currently paying about 0.01%/month, which makes them useless in my view. "


PLK:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/191174-active-etfs-good-place-to-stash-your-cash ---

http://etfscreen.com/corrsym.php?s=SPY

-0.26 TIP iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund -0.20 BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF -0.16 CFT iShares Barclays Credit Bond Fund -0.09 WDTI WisdomTree? Managed Futures