notes-futurism-farFutureScenarioTaxonomy

with examples from fiction and from real history.

Ideally, if completed, such a taxonomy would allow one to quickly and concisely describe many of the features of a work of speculative fiction or science fiction or futurist scenario, in the manner of Geek Code.


Classes of intelligent aliens

Aliens, by proximity and contact intent

No intelligent aliens exist

Aliens exist, but only in other 'dimensions' or scales not (presently) easily accessible from/to our space

Aliens exist, but so far away so as to be currently irrelevant

Aliens who may be watching humans but who will typically not extensively contact us until we reach some 'higher level of development'

Aliens who may be aware of and able to contact humans but who don't care because they are much more advanced

Aliens who could or do contact humans but who choose not to

Aliens who could or do contact humans but who fear extensive contact

Aliens who are aware of humans and seeking to interact with us, but it takes a long time

Aliens are already here, but in a mode of physical existence 'orthogonal' to our own

Aliens who are unaware of humans and would interact with us if they were aware

Aliens visited Earth in the past but left and have no further presence

and did not substantially manipulate humans

and substantially manipulated or created human biology

and substantially memetically manipulated humans

and aliens and humans share a common intelligent ancestor

Alien-like AI will exist

Aliens are already here, covertly influencing events on earth via conspiracies

Aliens, by military power

Aliens, by attitude towards humans

Strongly positive

Aliens who strongly value the well-being of humans or whose ethics require them to assist humans.

Slightly positive

Aliens who derive enjoyment or some possibly transitory strategic or commercial benefit from positive interactions with humans or from humanity's well-being, but who don't value the well-being of humans as an end in itself, or at least not an important end.

Don't care

Mixed

Within the class of aliens being considered, there are factions with widely varying attitudes; at least one faction is strongly positive or negative, and at least one faction is at least weakly on the opposite polarity.

Slightly negative

Aliens who feel that they would be better off if humans didn't exist or if they could minimize their interactions with humans, but who would not hurt humans just because of this.

Slightly negative : disgust

Aliens who feel that they are or could be contaminated with impurity, in a physical or in an abstract sense, via interactions with humans.

Strongly negative

Aliens who would harm or enslave individual and/or all humans if they had the chance.

Alien communication

Communication with aliens is initially difficult, but possible

Alien individual/collective mentality

Aliens are individually conscious

Aliens are a hivemind

Aliens are a borg

The aliens could be individually conscious but typically form a hive mind.

Alien consciousness mentality

Aliens are conscious like us

Aliens are zombies

What else?

Alien rationality

Aliens are more rational/have more willpower than us

Aliens are less rational/have less willpower than us

Alien culture

Aliens are religious

Aliens are not religious

What else?

Alien size

Aliens are much smaller than us

Aliens are about our size

Aliens are much larger than us

Alien speed

Aliens are much slower than us

Aliens are about our speed

Aliens are much faster than us

Alien lifespan

Aliens lifespan is much shorter than ours

Aliens lifespan is about the same as ours

Aliens lifespan is much longer than ours

Alien's own sense of the 'alien-ness' of humans

Eg, as a human, in history, some people have considered people of other races to be less than people, while others have considered all humans to be equals. Most humans think of many terrestrial tetrapods as very different from us, although all tetrapods share many similarities; bilateral symmetry, air-breathing, necks, a stiff spine, four limbs each with fingers/toes, as well an innumerable other similarites not only in body plan but also especially in genetics, biochemistry, microbiology, and in the basic physiology of various organs. In fact, it is said that we share about half of our DNA with banana plants [2]; almost 50% of our genes match those of fruit flies [3]; and about 20% of our genes match those of a weed [4]. This raises the issue that sense of how 'alien' different organisms are compared to ourselves may be rather arbitrary, and therefore, that 'aliens' might have a different take on it than we do.

Aliens think of humans as themselves

Aliens think of humans not as separate individuals, but as a human would think of their past or future self.

Aliens think of humans as family members

Aliens think of humans as very closely related individuals, with shared interests and 'natural' affiliation.

Aliens think of humans as other people

Aliens think of humans the way that contemporary non-racist humans think of other humans (see eg Star Trek).

Aliens think of humans the way that racist humans think of other races

Aliens think of humans the way that humans think of other primate species

In this and all of the following, note that the aliens may or may not have the assumption of less intelligence.

Aliens think of humans the way that humans think of other animals that we might have as pets

Aliens think of humans the way that humans think of other non-mammalian animals that we would not have as pets

Aliens think of humans the way that humans think of other macroscopic multicellular organisms eg plants

Aliens think of humans the way that humans think of organisms from different kingdoms, eg fungi

Aliens think of humans the way that humans think of potentially non-living physical processes

Aliens think of humans the way that humans imagine creepy horror story un-living strange entities

think Lovecraft, ghosts, etc.

Aliens think of humans as more alien than we can conceive

Possibly WE are the ones who anthropomorphize to a ridiculous extreme, and the aliens would group all of the above in a manner similar to how we would think of an alien who thinks of a human as having the same familiarity as their past or future self.


Classes of conceivable laws of physics relating to consciousness, thought, computation

Constructability of artificial consciousness

Conscious AI is constructible, and a mind can be copied perfectly

Conscious AI is constructible, and a mind cannot be copied perfectly but can be 'dubbed' or copied imperfectly

Conscious AI is constructible, but a mind cannot be copied but it can be moved

Conscious AI is constructible, but a mind cannot be copied nor moved

Conscious AI is not constructible; consciousness requires a biological substrate or a 'soul' which cannot be produced by material means or at least by entities of our class

Zombies

Zombies are defined here are creepy, intelligent yet unconscious entities.

'zombies' are impossible

'zombies' are possible

'zombies' are possible that can exactly mimic conscious entities

'zombies' are possible temporarily, but eventually some of them become conscious


Toposophy

Links (and credit for coining the term 'toposophy'):

Existence of forms of intelligent mentality

There is only one form of intelligent mentality

There are multiple forms of mentality, but only one toposophic level

There is no form of mind qualitatively more advanced than ours.

Here, 'toposophic level' means an ordering relation between mentalities where the greater mentality is qualitatively 'strictly more intelligent' than the lesser, in the same way that humans are more intelligent than frogs.

There is no mentality vastly more intelligent than ours

There are mentalities vastly more intelligent than ours, but in a quantitative (continuous), not a qualitative (discrete), way

There are a finite number of toposophic levels

There are an infinite number of toposophic levels

Distinct forms of intelligent mentality within one toposophic level

There is an intelligent toposophic level within which exists multiple distinct forms of mentality

There is no intelligent toposophic level within which exists multiple distinct forms of mentality

Total ordering of toposophic levels

(only if there are multiple toposophic levels, although i suppose technically a single toposophic level forms a total order)

All toposophic levels form a total order

For any two toposophic levels, one is 'more intelligent' than the other.

All toposophic levels form a partial order but not a total order

There exist two distinct toposophic levels such that neither is 'more intelligent' than the other, where by 'distinct toposophic level' it is meant that there is some third mentality that is 'strictly more intelligent' than one of these levels, but not the other; or there is some a third mentality that is 'strictly less intelligent' than one of these levels, but not the other.

Toposophic feasibility

(only if there are higher toposophic levels that can be created from the material world)

There are higher toposophic levels, but they cannot be created from the material world

There is some other part of reality in which higher beings can exist or can be created, but we cannot manipulate that part of reality in a manner so as to be ablet to create such beings.

There are higher toposophic levels that can be created materially

Trancension and ascension

Only if multiple toposophic levels exist.

No mind can transition between different toposophic levels

Our minds cannot transition to any different type of mentality

Our minds can transition to a different mentality, but cannot transition to any different toposophic level

And we cannot maintain 'ourselves' if we transition to a different mentality

And we can maintain 'ourselves' if we transition to a different mentality

Our minds cannot transition to any higher toposophic level

It is possible for a mind of a higher toposophic level to exist, and perhaps we will even be able to build them, but "toposophic ascension" is not possible; we cannot cause our own minds to reach this level.

Our minds can ascend to some higher toposophic level

Toposophic ascension chains

Inspired by Orion's Arm: Toposophy.

There exists only finitely long ascension chains

There exists an infinitely long ascension chain

Toposophic transcension vs ascension

(only if there are higher toposophic levels)

Only toposophic transcension, not ascension is possible

see Orion's Arm: transcension.

That is to say, if we transcend our minds, they invariable lose our previous goals and values and concerns and we wouldn't recognize the result as a continuation of ourself anymore (even if it would).

Toposophic ascension, not ascension is possible

Toposophic uniqueness

Are there any intelligent toposophic levels which hold multiple non-equivalent mentalities, 'non-equivalent' meaning that a mind cannot be converted from one mentality to the other without 'losing itself' (in the sense of transcension vs ascension)?

Our own toposophic level holds multiple non-equivalent mentalities, but no others do

Our own toposophic level holds multiple non-equivalent mentalities, and some toposophic level other than our own holds multiple non-equivalent mentalities

Our own toposophic level does not hold multiple non-equivalent mentalities, and some toposophic level other than our own holds multiple non-equivalent mentalities

Toposophic convergence

Does there exist four distinct mentalities A,B,C,D such that A < B,C < D under the toposophic relation, and there exists an ascension chain from A to B and from A to C and from B to D but not from C to D, and also B and C are non-equivalent?

If so, then some ascensions limit future choice.

Inspired by Orion's Arm: Toposophy.

Interpretability of thought

Minds can be mechanically 'read' and the thoughts read can be interpreted by an unintelligent machine

Minds can be mechanically 'written' but not read and the thought to be written can be created by an unintelligent machine

Minds can be mechanically 'read' and 'written' but the thoughts read can only be interpreted by placing them into another mind, although thoughts to be written can be created by an unintelligent machine

Minds can be mechanically 'read' and 'written' and the thoughts read can be interpreted by an unintelligent machine, but the thoughts to be written can only be created by reading from an intelligent mind

Minds can be mechanically 'read' and 'written' and the thoughts read can be interpreted by an unintelligent machine, and the thoughts written can be created by an unintelligent machine

Minds cannot be 'written' but can be 'read' but only through interaction with another mind (eg thoughts cannot be digitally stored)

Minds cannot be 'read' but can be 'written' but only through interaction with another mind (eg thoughts cannot be digitally stored)

Minds cannot be 'read' and 'written' but only through interaction with another mind (eg thoughts cannot be digitally stored)

Some combination of the above

Mind reading resistance

(only if minds can be read)

Mind reading cannot be 'resisted'

Mind reading can be 'resisted' absolutely

Beings who know how to resist mind-reading can resist it every time.

Mind reading resistance can be taught

Mind reading resistance is a physical property of the brain, and is not natural but must be bioengineered

Mind reading can be 'resisted' relatively

Beings who know how to resist mind-reading can resist it unless their resistance is 'overwhelmed' by some process that requires effort on the part of another being, not just a powerful machine.

Mind writing resistance

(only if minds can be written to)

(same branches as mind-reading)

P ?= NP

P = NP

P = NP

P = NP, but is still infeasible for some reason (algorithm unknown, or high degree polynomial, or large polynomial coefficients or constant)

P = NP, feasibly, but practical trapdoor functions are possible

P = NP, feasibly, and practical trapdoor functions do not exist

P != NP

Exotic misc relating to consciousness and intelligence and computation

Zones of Thought


Classes of conceivable laws of physics (excluding consciousness and intelligence)

The game theoretic implications of the laws of phyics

Cooperation tends to be a good strategy

Cooperation tends to be a bad strategy

The mass destructive/offensive/defensive/military/strategic implications of the laws of physics

Anonymous mass destruction can be cheaply, quickly and unpredictably targeted at any being with whom you have interacted

Anonymous mass destruction can be cheaply, quickly and unpredictably targeted at any physical location whose coordinates are known

Nearly perfect defense against blunt physical attack (as opposed to eg viruses) is possible

nearly perfect defense via copying

nearly perfect defense via teleportation at the first sign of danger

nearly perfect defense via inpenetrable structures

Spatial separation

Speed of light absolutely prevents fast travel or information transport

Speed of light absolutely prevents fast travel but fast information transport is possible

Speed of light prevents fast travel or information transport except for wormholes, which are not practically constructible

Speed of light prevents fast travel or information transport except for wormholes, which are practically constructible

Speed of light can be circumvented by something like 'warp drive'

Mass use of teleportation and/or persistent 'doors' between arbitrarily far locations is possible

Exotic possibilities

This section is not mutually exclusive.

Exotic spatial possibilities

No exotic spatial possibilities

'Parallel universes' but either there is only a small number of directly accessible ones, or transport between them is difficult, or it is difficult to transport to very different parallel universes

There are 'parallel universes' and mass use of teleportation between 'parallel universes' is possible in a way that allows cheap spatial expansion via parallel universes

'Bags of holding' are possible

Exotic time-travel

Time-travel in which killing your grandfather is prevented if you should try

Time-travel in which killing your grandfather 'creates' a parallel world but does not alter the time-traveller

sub-possibility: a place 'outside of time':

Time-travel in which killing your grandfather is dangerous to the time-traveller

Exotic probability alteration

Exotic 'reality-alteration' via mental action

Exotic mental/spiritual/supernatural interaction with the material world

This section is not mutually exclusive.

Psychic phenomena

Magic

Religion phenomena / Gods

Ghosts

Other supernatural


Are we in a simulation?

simulation todos

todo simulation taxonomy: http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2009/06/welcome-to-machine-part-5-simulation.html

hard, soft: hard: we are actually in the simulation soft: holodeck complete, partial: complete: our mental processes are being simulated; partial: inputs are being fed to our brains/bodies active, passive: active: we actually have free will in the sense that our cognitive processes determine our actions; passive: our own 'actions' are being external computed in a mechanical mechanical manner, and fed to our minds original vs replacement psychologies Communal and individual simulations: communal: every 'person' is actually a different conscious entity; individual: only one conscious entity is being simulated, the rest are zombies (there is also a mixed option here) invalid combinations of the above: http://web.archive.org/web/20110928050016/http://simulism.org/Talk:Consciousness_and_the_Different_Types_of_Simulation

Other exotic possibilities on the nature of reality


Future of humanity

humanity todos

todos

todo existential risks: http://www.openthefuture.com/2006/12/an_eschatological_taxonomy.html

todo Global Scenario Group scenarios:

http://www.greattransition.org/explore/scenarios http://www.polestarproject.org/globalscen.html http://www.tellus.org/integrated-scenarios/taxonomy-of-the-future

http://www.bohemiandrive.com/comics/npwil/2.html

humanity continues to exist

humanity ceases to exist

links:

humans stop reproducing

voluntarily

eg the webcomic Nine Planets Without Intelligent Life


todos

more on alien culture