notes-business-startups-misc

Here is a paradox.

On the one hand, When someone makes a projection for how long a project will take or how much it will cost, you tend to me underestimating the length and cost.

But on the other hand, very successful people say that you should go on and attempt projects that seem very difficult, even infeasibly difficult.

How to reconcile these? If you attempt something that seems too difficult, and if you tend to underestimate difficulty, how will this lead to success?

I can think of two possible answers:

(1) It won't, usually. But when it does, it's very impressive and the people who made that choice and got lucky are very well-regarded. If this is the answer, then the advice to attempt difficult things is just bad advice; they just got lucky.

(2) The success comes not from achieving the difficult project, but from changing course midway and achieving some other goal, following some other opportunity that you wouldn't have discovered unless you had pursued the difficult project. If this is the answer, then the advice to attempt difficult things is good, but it mustn't be mixed with an attitude of i'm-going-to-finish-what-i-started.